<p>This paper investigates the effects of remittances shocks and remittances uncertainty on the nominal and the real effective exchange rates of the six top remittance earning low- and middle-income countries, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, and the Philippines. We use high frequency data for their floating exchange rate periods. A bivariate structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR is our empirical model to examine the effect of remittances inflow uncertainty on the exchange rates of each country, along with the responses of the exchange rates to positive and negative shocks in remittances. The paper finds that uncertainty in remittances is likely to appreciate the currency of Mexico against the US dollar, but remittances uncertainty has no effect on the exchange rate of the other five countries. Besides, positive and negative shocks in remittances inflow have no effect on the currency exchange rate of India and Pakistan while the exchange rates of other currencies respond at different magnitudes according to the impulse responses drawn from our model.</p>

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Remittances and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries

  • M. M. Islam Chowdhury,
  • Apostolos Serletis

摘要

This paper investigates the effects of remittances shocks and remittances uncertainty on the nominal and the real effective exchange rates of the six top remittance earning low- and middle-income countries, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, and the Philippines. We use high frequency data for their floating exchange rate periods. A bivariate structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR is our empirical model to examine the effect of remittances inflow uncertainty on the exchange rates of each country, along with the responses of the exchange rates to positive and negative shocks in remittances. The paper finds that uncertainty in remittances is likely to appreciate the currency of Mexico against the US dollar, but remittances uncertainty has no effect on the exchange rate of the other five countries. Besides, positive and negative shocks in remittances inflow have no effect on the currency exchange rate of India and Pakistan while the exchange rates of other currencies respond at different magnitudes according to the impulse responses drawn from our model.