Bureaucratic biases in trust of expert policy advice: a randomized controlled experiment based on Chinese think tank reports

The role of policy advisory systems in the bureaucratic policy-making process has expanded greatly, yet little is known about officials’ trust in the analyses they produce. This study investigates whether mid-career administrators in China place greater trust in policy analyses produced by governmental, quasi-governmental, or private think tanks, and the extent to which trust biases among administrators differ based on their age, gender, or the department they work in. We test for the predicted differences through a web-based randomized controlled experiment conducted with mid-career administrators selected for an executive MPA program (N = 405). The findings, derived from ordinal logistic and OLS regression analyses, reveal that bureaucratic officials have greater trust in reports produced by governmental think tanks. Women, older officials, and officials working in social service departments exhibit greater trust bias favoring government produced analyses. The discussion explores how close institutionalized linkages with the party-state align analyses conducted by governmental think tanks with agencies’ strategic direction. In contrast, the dependency of quasi-governmental and private think tanks on external resources may undercut their credibility, leading their analyses to serve as a complement to, rather than substitute for that of governmental think tanks.