<p>Influenza poses a significant threat to global public health and socioeconomic stability. To account for the heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and contact patterns across different age groups, we develop a multi-group influenza model that incorporates population dynamics, incomplete immunity, and preferential mixing within each age group. Theoretically, the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is given by using the next-generation matrix approach, and through the persistence theory, the existence and globally asymptotic stability of both disease-free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium is derived through the consistent persistence theory. Numerically, using the 2015-2016 influenza epidemic in Shenzhen as a case study, we estimate age-specific transmission rates, identifying preschool children as the most susceptible group, followed by school-aged students, the elderly, and adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals that preferential within-group contact raises <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> due to clustering effects. The average contact level exhibits a nonlinear relationship with <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, which means there exists an optimal level that minimizes <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, while both excessive and insufficient contacts facilitate transmission. Vaccination, meanwhile, effectively reduces incidence. For example, the free-vaccination policy in Shenzhen significantly suppresses influenza transmission and reduces incidence among the elderly by 25.34% when targeting two key age groups. Gradient-based analysis further provides a quantitative basis for optimizing vaccination allocation across age groups. These integrated theoretical and numerical outcomes offer actionable insights for designing effective public health interventions.</p>

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Impact of heterogeneous vaccination and contact on influenza dynamics in age structure population

  • Lusha Shi,
  • Liping Wang,
  • Meng Song,
  • Zhen Jin

摘要

Influenza poses a significant threat to global public health and socioeconomic stability. To account for the heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and contact patterns across different age groups, we develop a multi-group influenza model that incorporates population dynamics, incomplete immunity, and preferential mixing within each age group. Theoretically, the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 is given by using the next-generation matrix approach, and through the persistence theory, the existence and globally asymptotic stability of both disease-free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium is derived through the consistent persistence theory. Numerically, using the 2015-2016 influenza epidemic in Shenzhen as a case study, we estimate age-specific transmission rates, identifying preschool children as the most susceptible group, followed by school-aged students, the elderly, and adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals that preferential within-group contact raises \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 due to clustering effects. The average contact level exhibits a nonlinear relationship with \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 , which means there exists an optimal level that minimizes \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 , while both excessive and insufficient contacts facilitate transmission. Vaccination, meanwhile, effectively reduces incidence. For example, the free-vaccination policy in Shenzhen significantly suppresses influenza transmission and reduces incidence among the elderly by 25.34% when targeting two key age groups. Gradient-based analysis further provides a quantitative basis for optimizing vaccination allocation across age groups. These integrated theoretical and numerical outcomes offer actionable insights for designing effective public health interventions.