<p>The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes has emerged as a promising biocontrol strategy to suppress mosquito-borne diseases. However, the success of such interventions is highly sensitive to ecological conditions, release timing, and seasonal climate variability. In this study, we develop a climate-driven compartmental model that explores the interplay between mosquito life cycle dynamics, human disease transmission, and Wolbachia-based biocontrol. Analysis of the autonomous version of the system shows that the Wolbachia-free subsystem exhibits a backward bifurcation. In contrast, the Wolbachia-invaded subsystem shows a forward bifurcation, which supports disease elimination. In the non-autonomous framework, we establish that disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive for <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$R_0 < 1$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo><</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, whereas the system admits at least one positive periodic solution for <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$R_0 > 1$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>></mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, implying disease persistence. Numerical simulations validate the analytical results using real climate data from Niterói, Brazil. We find that the consistent presence of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes successfully invades the Wolbachia-free population and effectively reduces disease prevalence. To evaluate the efficacy of Wolbachia deployment, we analyze five release strategies, namely: three-pulse, four-pulse, five-pulse, continuous exponentially decreasing, and quadratically increasing releases. In addition to comparing release modes, we examine release timing and gaps, showing that aligning strategies with seasonal climate patterns ensures sustained Wolbachia establishment and disease control. Additionally, a global sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients identifies key parameters of infection dynamics. Parameters such as mosquito biting rate and egg maturation rate positively influence infection, while recruitment of humans, probability of cytoplasmic incompatibility, and recovery of humans exert strong negative effects. These insights help prioritize key biological parameters for an accurate intervention strategy. The model, supported by sensitivity analysis, provides a practical tool for designing adaptive Wolbachia release strategies personalized for local temperature and rainfall conditions.</p>

A climate-based model of mosquito-borne disease dynamics with wolbachia

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发表日期：

2026年2月24日

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Himanshu Jain,
Arjun Kumar,
Balram Dubey,
Arvind Kumar Sinha

摘要

The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes has emerged as a promising biocontrol strategy to suppress mosquito-borne diseases. However, the success of such interventions is highly sensitive to ecological conditions, release timing, and seasonal climate variability. In this study, we develop a climate-driven compartmental model that explores the interplay between mosquito life cycle dynamics, human disease transmission, and Wolbachia-based biocontrol. Analysis of the autonomous version of the system shows that the Wolbachia-free subsystem exhibits a backward bifurcation. In contrast, the Wolbachia-invaded subsystem shows a forward bifurcation, which supports disease elimination. In the non-autonomous framework, we establish that disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive for $R_0 < 1$ $R_{0} < 1$ , whereas the system admits at least one positive periodic solution for $R_0 > 1$ $R_{0} > 1$ , implying disease persistence. Numerical simulations validate the analytical results using real climate data from Niterói, Brazil. We find that the consistent presence of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes successfully invades the Wolbachia-free population and effectively reduces disease prevalence. To evaluate the efficacy of Wolbachia deployment, we analyze five release strategies, namely: three-pulse, four-pulse, five-pulse, continuous exponentially decreasing, and quadratically increasing releases. In addition to comparing release modes, we examine release timing and gaps, showing that aligning strategies with seasonal climate patterns ensures sustained Wolbachia establishment and disease control. Additionally, a global sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients identifies key parameters of infection dynamics. Parameters such as mosquito biting rate and egg maturation rate positively influence infection, while recruitment of humans, probability of cytoplasmic incompatibility, and recovery of humans exert strong negative effects. These insights help prioritize key biological parameters for an accurate intervention strategy. The model, supported by sensitivity analysis, provides a practical tool for designing adaptive Wolbachia release strategies personalized for local temperature and rainfall conditions.