Nipah virus transmission dynamics: equilibrium states, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

As the initial outbreak of Nipah virus disease in 1998–1999, which affected both human and non-human primates primarily in developing countries in far East Asian region, the devastating impact of this virus has persisted. It has been observed that one of the potential modes of transmission for the Nipah virus is through unprotected contact with deceased bodies of infected individuals. In response to these concerns, proposed research has focused on understanding the dynamics of Nipah virus transmission, considering three main modes: food-borne transmission, human-to-human transmission, and transmission from deceased bodies. Furthermore, this study delves into the impact of media coverage on both the spread and control of infectious diseases like Nipah virus. Furthermore, the work includes a comprehensive theoretical analysis that examines the stability of the possible steady states within the model. Sensitivity analysis utilizing Latin hypercube sampling method is employed to evaluate how various parameters within the model influence the propagation of ailment. Subsequently, Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients are computed for further investigation of the impact of these uncertainties on disease dynamics. The concept of transcritical bifurcation-induced stability alteration has been examined, exploring how changes in stability occur when a system undergoes a transcritical bifurcation. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how different variables, like media coverage, frequency and amplitude of transmission, can influence the spread and evolution of the infection over time.