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Adaptive contacts rates via indirect human behaviors induces complex dynamics of schistosomiasis

  • Jai Prakash Tripathi,
  • Vijay Pal Bajiya,
  • Anuj Mubayi

摘要

Schistosomiasis, a major neglected tropical disease affecting over 240 million people, is primarily controlled through mass drug administration . Evaluating the success of such interventions is challenging due to the evolving behavior of affected communities. Our study uses a novel transmission dynamics model, including two free-living larval stages (Cercariae and Miracidia) and two host populations (snails and humans), to explore how behavioral changes impact Schistosomiasis patterns. Our model shows that changes in human behavior, such as avoiding contact with contaminated water, reduce the average number of Miracidia, which in turn affects infection transmission rates. We found that the dynamics exhibit threshold behavior governed by the basic reproductive number \(R_0\) R 0 , with at least two equilibria (disease-free and endemic states) and specific regions of global stability. Our results indicate that removing snails from water bodies is the most effective strategy for eliminating Schistosomiasis compared to increasing human treatment rates or cleaning Cercariae. While behavioral changes don’t affect the likelihood of an epidemic (i.e., \(R_0\) R 0 remains unchanged), they significantly impact endemic prevalence. These findings enhance our understanding of Schistosomiasis control and aid in the optimal allocation of resources for eradication efforts.