Scholarlink

<p>The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) faces challenges because of intense rainfall events that repeatedly result in landslides, flooding, and overflowing streams and rivers, paralyzing the city and causing material damage and fatalities. The representation of urban areas remains uncertain, as the land use and land cover (LULC) data often fail to consider urban heterogeneity in models. The use of Local Climate Zones (LCZs) seeks to fill this gap by classifying urban areas based on surface coverage, geometry, and anthropogenic heat sources. This study investigated how the combination of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, together with LCZ-based urban characteristics, affects the simulation of extreme rainfall events. Simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at horizontal resolutions of 9, 3, and 1&#xa0;km for the extreme rainfall event that occurred over MASP on February 10, 2020. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1-km simulations, particularly those using the Bougeault–Lacarrère PBL and Morrison MP schemes, provided the best overall performance, reducing forecast errors in the timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of the extreme rainfall. The inclusion of LCZ, compared with the default Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LULC dataset, improved the representation of the spatial pattern and timing of precipitation, although rainfall intensity remained slightly underestimated. Additional analyses indicate that the LCZ experiment produced a warmer near-surface environment and stronger low-level convergence associated with the interaction between southwesterly and northwesterly flow, favoring the organization of deep convection prior to the rainfall peak. These results highlight the important role of detailed urban morphology in shaping the thermodynamic and dynamical environment associated with extreme rainfall and demonstrate the potential of LCZs to improve short-range forecasts in densely urbanized areas.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Impact of land use and physical schemes on convection-permitting simulations of an extreme precipitation event in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

查看全文
  • Geraldo D. Gomes,
  • Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha,
  • Ana M. B. Nunes

摘要

The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) faces challenges because of intense rainfall events that repeatedly result in landslides, flooding, and overflowing streams and rivers, paralyzing the city and causing material damage and fatalities. The representation of urban areas remains uncertain, as the land use and land cover (LULC) data often fail to consider urban heterogeneity in models. The use of Local Climate Zones (LCZs) seeks to fill this gap by classifying urban areas based on surface coverage, geometry, and anthropogenic heat sources. This study investigated how the combination of microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, together with LCZ-based urban characteristics, affects the simulation of extreme rainfall events. Simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at horizontal resolutions of 9, 3, and 1 km for the extreme rainfall event that occurred over MASP on February 10, 2020. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1-km simulations, particularly those using the Bougeault–Lacarrère PBL and Morrison MP schemes, provided the best overall performance, reducing forecast errors in the timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of the extreme rainfall. The inclusion of LCZ, compared with the default Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LULC dataset, improved the representation of the spatial pattern and timing of precipitation, although rainfall intensity remained slightly underestimated. Additional analyses indicate that the LCZ experiment produced a warmer near-surface environment and stronger low-level convergence associated with the interaction between southwesterly and northwesterly flow, favoring the organization of deep convection prior to the rainfall peak. These results highlight the important role of detailed urban morphology in shaping the thermodynamic and dynamical environment associated with extreme rainfall and demonstrate the potential of LCZs to improve short-range forecasts in densely urbanized areas.