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<p> impacts. Flooding has emerged as one of the most prevalent natural hazards in the north-eastern regions of South Africa’s Limpopo Province. This trend is closely linked to climate change, which has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events, thereby exacerbating flood occurrences and amplifying their associated socio-economic impacts. This study examines flood conditioning factors, assesses and maps flood vulnerability, and develops an adaptation framework for the Mopani District, a largely rural region in the far north-east of South Africa. Nine flood conditioning factors were integrated into a multi-criteria analysis: slope (23%), elevation (18%), rainfall (14%), topographic wetness index (12%), distance to river (10%), land use and land cover (7%), soil type (6%), distance to road (5%), and drainage density (4%). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to assign relative weights, followed by a weighted overlay approach for vulnerability mapping. The consistency of the weighting scheme was verified using the Consistency Index (CI = 0.09) and Consistency Ratio (CR = 0.062), both indicating acceptable reliability. The extent of vulnerability was scaled from very low to very high and ranked for each local municipality in the district. Drawing on the flood conditioning factors and the vulnerability map, and using an inductive framework development approach, an adaptation framework was developed. The flood vulnerability map revealed high vulnerability across large areas of Mopani District, mainly in the eastern lowveld and along major river networks. While the western region is generally wetter due to topographic effects, the lowlands in the east are more vulnerable and occasionally experience landfalling tropical storms. However, some areas on the edge of the western mountains exhibit very high vulnerability due to a combination of high runoff, urbanisation, and proximity to rivers. The adaptation framework developed in this study offers key short-term and long-term adaptation strategies for municipalities and local authorities. Our findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened disaster mitigation, preparedness, and prevention strategies in the Mopani District and similar regions in Southern Africa.</p>

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Flood vulnerability assessment in Mopani District Municipality, South Africa. Part 1: Physical factors and adaptation framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月7日

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  • Rendani B. Munyai,
  • Shandukani C. Nenwiini,
  • Tumelo Mohomi,
  • Mukovhe V. Singo,
  • Hector Chikoore

摘要

impacts. Flooding has emerged as one of the most prevalent natural hazards in the north-eastern regions of South Africa’s Limpopo Province. This trend is closely linked to climate change, which has intensified the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events, thereby exacerbating flood occurrences and amplifying their associated socio-economic impacts. This study examines flood conditioning factors, assesses and maps flood vulnerability, and develops an adaptation framework for the Mopani District, a largely rural region in the far north-east of South Africa. Nine flood conditioning factors were integrated into a multi-criteria analysis: slope (23%), elevation (18%), rainfall (14%), topographic wetness index (12%), distance to river (10%), land use and land cover (7%), soil type (6%), distance to road (5%), and drainage density (4%). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to assign relative weights, followed by a weighted overlay approach for vulnerability mapping. The consistency of the weighting scheme was verified using the Consistency Index (CI = 0.09) and Consistency Ratio (CR = 0.062), both indicating acceptable reliability. The extent of vulnerability was scaled from very low to very high and ranked for each local municipality in the district. Drawing on the flood conditioning factors and the vulnerability map, and using an inductive framework development approach, an adaptation framework was developed. The flood vulnerability map revealed high vulnerability across large areas of Mopani District, mainly in the eastern lowveld and along major river networks. While the western region is generally wetter due to topographic effects, the lowlands in the east are more vulnerable and occasionally experience landfalling tropical storms. However, some areas on the edge of the western mountains exhibit very high vulnerability due to a combination of high runoff, urbanisation, and proximity to rivers. The adaptation framework developed in this study offers key short-term and long-term adaptation strategies for municipalities and local authorities. Our findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened disaster mitigation, preparedness, and prevention strategies in the Mopani District and similar regions in Southern Africa.