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<p>Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow corridors of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere, are increasingly recognized as critical triggers of landslides, particularly in regions with steep slopes. This study investigates the influence of AR-induced rainfall on rock slope stability through two case studies: the Seabird Island rock slide in British Columbia, Canada, and the Termas El Amarillo rock slide in northern Patagonia, Chile. These events occurred in similar climatic and geological contexts, characterized by intrusive rocks, but exhibited distinct triggering mechanisms influenced by rainfall patterns and slope characteristics. Detailed structural mapping and UAV-derived photogrammetric data provided high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for slope geometry and failure analysis. UDEC software simulations explored hydromechanical coupling under steady-state and transient flow conditions to simulate antecedent rainfall and AR events. Results indicate that prolonged antecedent rainfall was critical in preconditioning the Seabird Island slope, while the Termas El Amarillo failure was driven primarily by one intense, short-duration rainfall event. Both cases highlight the role of discontinuities and lithology in the slopes’ behaviour. Key findings underscore the necessity of incorporating cumulative rainfall effects and site-specific geological factors in landslide hazard assessments. This research advances the understanding of AR-induced landslides by integrating diverse methodologies to identify failure mechanisms and assess rainfall influences on rock slopes.</p>

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Hydromechanical modelling of rock slides triggered by atmospheric rivers: insights from British Columbia and Patagonia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Nicolas Jaimes,
  • Sergio A. Sepúlveda,
  • Brent C. Ward,
  • Diana M. Allen,
  • Paul Duhart

摘要

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow corridors of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere, are increasingly recognized as critical triggers of landslides, particularly in regions with steep slopes. This study investigates the influence of AR-induced rainfall on rock slope stability through two case studies: the Seabird Island rock slide in British Columbia, Canada, and the Termas El Amarillo rock slide in northern Patagonia, Chile. These events occurred in similar climatic and geological contexts, characterized by intrusive rocks, but exhibited distinct triggering mechanisms influenced by rainfall patterns and slope characteristics. Detailed structural mapping and UAV-derived photogrammetric data provided high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for slope geometry and failure analysis. UDEC software simulations explored hydromechanical coupling under steady-state and transient flow conditions to simulate antecedent rainfall and AR events. Results indicate that prolonged antecedent rainfall was critical in preconditioning the Seabird Island slope, while the Termas El Amarillo failure was driven primarily by one intense, short-duration rainfall event. Both cases highlight the role of discontinuities and lithology in the slopes’ behaviour. Key findings underscore the necessity of incorporating cumulative rainfall effects and site-specific geological factors in landslide hazard assessments. This research advances the understanding of AR-induced landslides by integrating diverse methodologies to identify failure mechanisms and assess rainfall influences on rock slopes.