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<p>Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the strongest natural climate drivers, yet their regional impacts remain poorly constrained in semi-arid regions. We present the first comprehensive assessment of volcanically induced cooling over Iran using station observations and CMIP6 simulations for the eruptions of Agung (1963), Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982), and Pinatubo (1991). Observations reveal cooling signals emerging within four months, peaking at 12–15&#xa0;months, and in some cases persisting nearly 4 years. Spatial patterns show strongest anomalies in arid lowlands and weaker responses in mountains due to snow cover and topographic buffering. A central finding is the divergence between observations and CMIP6: while models capture timing, they underestimate both intensity and persistence, consistent with global evidence. Superposed Epoch Analysis further demonstrates that clustered eruptions generate compound, multi-year cooling. These results highlight the value of regional observations and higher-resolution modeling for improving attribution and resilience planning in semi-arid climates. Importantly, the findings demonstrate that volcanic cooling episodes represent temporary climatic perturbations rather than long-term climate reversals, emphasizing the resilience of regional warming trends despite short-lived volcanic forcing.</p>

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Unraveling volcanic cooling in semi-arid climates: model–observation gaps and multi-eruption impacts over Iran

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Gholamreza Roshan,
  • Abdolazim Saman,
  • Stefan W. Grab,
  • Muhammad Mubashar Dogar,
  • Shingo Watanabe,
  • Tarig A. Ali

摘要

Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the strongest natural climate drivers, yet their regional impacts remain poorly constrained in semi-arid regions. We present the first comprehensive assessment of volcanically induced cooling over Iran using station observations and CMIP6 simulations for the eruptions of Agung (1963), Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982), and Pinatubo (1991). Observations reveal cooling signals emerging within four months, peaking at 12–15 months, and in some cases persisting nearly 4 years. Spatial patterns show strongest anomalies in arid lowlands and weaker responses in mountains due to snow cover and topographic buffering. A central finding is the divergence between observations and CMIP6: while models capture timing, they underestimate both intensity and persistence, consistent with global evidence. Superposed Epoch Analysis further demonstrates that clustered eruptions generate compound, multi-year cooling. These results highlight the value of regional observations and higher-resolution modeling for improving attribution and resilience planning in semi-arid climates. Importantly, the findings demonstrate that volcanic cooling episodes represent temporary climatic perturbations rather than long-term climate reversals, emphasizing the resilience of regional warming trends despite short-lived volcanic forcing.