Assessment of embedded risk in precipitation tails over India through concentration profiles: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6 experiments

In India, changing climate has led to increased occurrences of extreme precipitation events causing extensive damage to humans and environment. While researchers have investigated the variations in extreme precipitation by examining the tail heaviness of daily precipitation datasets using different scalar and graphical methods, the actual risk associated with these extremes, especially across climate zones, remains underexplored. This study shows the utility of Concentration Map (CM) which condenses tail risk information into a single value by using inferences from the Concentration Profile (CP). This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the tail risk associated with daily precipitation extremes for the past (1901–2019) and future (2020–2100) time periods at 4801 grids over India. The simulations from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are considered for the investigation. Further, the tail risk assessment is performed across meteorological subdivisions and Köppen–Geiger (KG) climate zones of India. Results indicate an overall increase in tail risk across all four scenarios, with grid-level relative changes reaching up to 22.41%, a median increase of 5.48%, and an interquartile range of 3.98–7.05%, highlighting a widespread intensification of extreme precipitation risk under future climate conditions.Subdivisions in Southern and Central India show greater future risk, while KG zones including Tropical, Arid, and Temperate exhibit substantial increases. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers to design adaptation strategies at local and regional levels.