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<p>Considering the growing risk of extreme heat events, this study evaluates the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) projections of heatwave characteristics and its associated atmospheric dynamics over India using high-resolution (20-km) simulations from the RSM-CCSM4 regional climate model (RCM). Evaluation of the present-day simulation of the RCM indicates reasonable fidelity in simulating the 2&#xa0;m air temperature, 2&#xa0;m specific humidity, and heatwave characteristics compared with ERA5 reanalysis. Projections show an earlier onset, delayed cessation, and increased frequency of the heatwaves, particularly over central and northwest India, implying a higher risk of prolonged extreme heat. During heatwave days, temperature and humidity increase across India, with maximum warming over western Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and peninsular India. Similarly, projected humidity change is maximum along the eastern coast, central India and eastern IGP. The projected zonal wind anomalies over northwest India show a strengthening negative anomaly over 20–30°N in mid-twenty-first century, along with a notable northward shift in the mid- to upper-tropospheric levels, suggesting a northward shift of subtropical westerly jet in the future climate. Future projections also show (a) amplified mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies and associated anticyclonic circulation during heatwave events over northwest India, (b) increased persistence of these anomalies resulting in a greater number of 2-day to a 4-day heatwave events, and (c) the heatwaves which are more frequent during the dry phase of the intraseasonal oscillations is projected to intensify in the future. Overall, the projected intensification of heatwaves highlights the need to prepare and implement locally relevant adaptation strategies under a warming climate.</p>

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Assessing future heat wave patterns in India: insights from a high-resolution regional climate model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

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  • C. B. Jayasankar,
  • Vasubandhu Misra,
  • Jacob Hopp

摘要

Considering the growing risk of extreme heat events, this study evaluates the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) projections of heatwave characteristics and its associated atmospheric dynamics over India using high-resolution (20-km) simulations from the RSM-CCSM4 regional climate model (RCM). Evaluation of the present-day simulation of the RCM indicates reasonable fidelity in simulating the 2 m air temperature, 2 m specific humidity, and heatwave characteristics compared with ERA5 reanalysis. Projections show an earlier onset, delayed cessation, and increased frequency of the heatwaves, particularly over central and northwest India, implying a higher risk of prolonged extreme heat. During heatwave days, temperature and humidity increase across India, with maximum warming over western Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and peninsular India. Similarly, projected humidity change is maximum along the eastern coast, central India and eastern IGP. The projected zonal wind anomalies over northwest India show a strengthening negative anomaly over 20–30°N in mid-twenty-first century, along with a notable northward shift in the mid- to upper-tropospheric levels, suggesting a northward shift of subtropical westerly jet in the future climate. Future projections also show (a) amplified mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies and associated anticyclonic circulation during heatwave events over northwest India, (b) increased persistence of these anomalies resulting in a greater number of 2-day to a 4-day heatwave events, and (c) the heatwaves which are more frequent during the dry phase of the intraseasonal oscillations is projected to intensify in the future. Overall, the projected intensification of heatwaves highlights the need to prepare and implement locally relevant adaptation strategies under a warming climate.