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<p>Fire regimes are shifting under global change due to interactions among climate variability, vegetation dynamics, and human activities. This study compares the drivers of fire occurrence across three contrasting fire regimes (Bolivia, Canada, and Galicia) and evaluates their evolution over two decades (2000–2010 and 2011–2020). Random Forest models were applied independently for each region and period to assess the relative importance of climatic, topographic, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables. Distinct fire-generating mechanisms emerged. In Bolivia, fire occurrence is strongly linked to NDVI variability associated with deforestation. In Canada, average NDVI and lightning reflect interactions between fuel conditions and natural ignition sources. In Galicia, forest structure and topography primarily shape fuel continuity and fire propagation. Temporal comparisons indicate moderate shifts in driver’s importance between decades. These results highlight that similar variables represent different ignition and propagation mechanisms depending on socio-ecological context, reinforcing the need for region-specific fire management strategies.</p>

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Understanding fire occurrence drivers and their evolution in distinct fire regimes: a comparative analysis of Bolivia, Canada, and Spain over two decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Fátima Arrogante-Funes,
  • Adrián G. Bruzón,
  • Patricia Arrogante-Funes,
  • Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado,
  • Magi Franquesa,
  • Inmaculada Aguado

摘要

Fire regimes are shifting under global change due to interactions among climate variability, vegetation dynamics, and human activities. This study compares the drivers of fire occurrence across three contrasting fire regimes (Bolivia, Canada, and Galicia) and evaluates their evolution over two decades (2000–2010 and 2011–2020). Random Forest models were applied independently for each region and period to assess the relative importance of climatic, topographic, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables. Distinct fire-generating mechanisms emerged. In Bolivia, fire occurrence is strongly linked to NDVI variability associated with deforestation. In Canada, average NDVI and lightning reflect interactions between fuel conditions and natural ignition sources. In Galicia, forest structure and topography primarily shape fuel continuity and fire propagation. Temporal comparisons indicate moderate shifts in driver’s importance between decades. These results highlight that similar variables represent different ignition and propagation mechanisms depending on socio-ecological context, reinforcing the need for region-specific fire management strategies.