Stability assessment of reservoir rim landslides under climate-induced drawdown scenarios: the Chin Coulee landslide
摘要
The effects of climate change in Canada are evident through rising temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and drier summers. This has increased demand for reservoir water, especially in Alberta, due to its distance from large water bodies, declining precipitation, and the necessity for irrigation water. Fluctuations in reservoir water levels indirectly reflect the demand for reservoir water for purposes such as irrigation. Reservoir drawdown, a critical phenomenon influencing slope stability of a reservoir rim, has the potential to reactivate old landslides, trigger new ones, or accelerate existing movements. In Alberta, the geologic conditions could pronounced this drawdown-induced instability. Hence, it’s crucial to assess slope stability near reservoirs under fluctuating drawdown rates, particularly in extreme scenarios influenced by climate change. This research develops a systematic methodology to assess the current stability of a landslide on the Chin reservoir rim under existing drawdown scenarios and explore changes in stability under potential future drawdown scenarios caused by climate change. The work described in this paper was completed for the Chin Coulee landslide, located on the rim of the Chin reservoir in southern Alberta; the movement rates of the Chin Coulee landslide are known to be affected by the reservoir drawdown. Our methodology affirms the observed failure mechanisms and soil mechanical properties and indicates a decrease in slope stability as the reservoir drawdown rates increase. The method also includes a practical, simplified approach to estimate the change in drawdown magnitude and rates because of climate change.