<p>The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have increased in recent decades due to climate change, a trend expected to continue. As intense precipitation is a primary trigger of landslides, understanding the evolving relationship between rainfall and landslide hazards is of growing practical importance. While previous studies have often focused on localized events or limited timescales, national-scale landslide research in the United States remains limited, largely due to inconsistent, incomplete, and unevenly distributed landslide inventories across regions. Despite issues such as under-reporting, NASA’s Cooperative Open Online Landslide Repository (COOLR) landslide inventory dataset is one of the best available covering the entire US spanning decades. This study leverages modern geospatial statistical tools in GIS to analyze nationwide spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall-triggered landslides across the conterminous United States from 2006 to 2021 and their association with precipitation. Emerging Hot Spot and Colocation Analyses were applied to identify statistically significant trends and relationships between precipitation and landslide activity. Results reveal different hot spot types (including Consecutive, Persistent, Oscillating, and Sporadic hot spots) in the Pacific West and along Appalachian Mountains regions, with strong colocation between maximum precipitation and landslide occurrence. Projections under multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios suggest that high-risk zones may expand into the northeastern U.S., indicating a potential geographic shift in landslide vulnerability due to climate-driven changes in precipitation. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, planners, and the insurance sector to better anticipate future risks, inform infrastructure resilience strategies, and improve public preparedness in an era of intensifying climate extremes.</p>

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Spatiotemporal trends of rainfall‑triggered landslides in the U.S. under climate change

  • Karissa Duff,
  • Wei Luo

摘要

The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have increased in recent decades due to climate change, a trend expected to continue. As intense precipitation is a primary trigger of landslides, understanding the evolving relationship between rainfall and landslide hazards is of growing practical importance. While previous studies have often focused on localized events or limited timescales, national-scale landslide research in the United States remains limited, largely due to inconsistent, incomplete, and unevenly distributed landslide inventories across regions. Despite issues such as under-reporting, NASA’s Cooperative Open Online Landslide Repository (COOLR) landslide inventory dataset is one of the best available covering the entire US spanning decades. This study leverages modern geospatial statistical tools in GIS to analyze nationwide spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall-triggered landslides across the conterminous United States from 2006 to 2021 and their association with precipitation. Emerging Hot Spot and Colocation Analyses were applied to identify statistically significant trends and relationships between precipitation and landslide activity. Results reveal different hot spot types (including Consecutive, Persistent, Oscillating, and Sporadic hot spots) in the Pacific West and along Appalachian Mountains regions, with strong colocation between maximum precipitation and landslide occurrence. Projections under multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios suggest that high-risk zones may expand into the northeastern U.S., indicating a potential geographic shift in landslide vulnerability due to climate-driven changes in precipitation. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, planners, and the insurance sector to better anticipate future risks, inform infrastructure resilience strategies, and improve public preparedness in an era of intensifying climate extremes.