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<p>Wildfire (WF) risk in the United States is escalating, yet conventional risk assessment methods often treat this risk as static. This study provides a national-scale comparison of purely spatial and spatiotemporal clustering methods to identify WF hotspots across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2014 to 2024. Using a comprehensive dataset of WF occurrences and spatial and spatiotemporal scan statistics, we analyze how the inclusion of a temporal dimension alters risk identification. The results demonstrate a fundamental divergence: purely spatial analysis identifies persistent, chronic hotspots, often in the Southeastern U.S., with smaller at-risk populations. In contrast, spatiotemporal analysis reveals transient, acute hotspots, frequently shifting risk to the Western U.S. and Southern Plains, and encompassing at-risk populations an order of magnitude larger. The distinction between chronic and acute risk necessitates a dual-strategy approach to fire management, combining long-term mitigation with agile, short-term operational responses. This research provides a new framework for understanding and managing the dynamic nature of contemporary WF risk on a national scale.</p>

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Static maps, dynamic threats: re-evaluating U.S. wildfire risk with spatiotemporal clustering

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Gunjan Barua,
  • Miguel Pires,
  • Junghwan Kim

摘要

Wildfire (WF) risk in the United States is escalating, yet conventional risk assessment methods often treat this risk as static. This study provides a national-scale comparison of purely spatial and spatiotemporal clustering methods to identify WF hotspots across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2014 to 2024. Using a comprehensive dataset of WF occurrences and spatial and spatiotemporal scan statistics, we analyze how the inclusion of a temporal dimension alters risk identification. The results demonstrate a fundamental divergence: purely spatial analysis identifies persistent, chronic hotspots, often in the Southeastern U.S., with smaller at-risk populations. In contrast, spatiotemporal analysis reveals transient, acute hotspots, frequently shifting risk to the Western U.S. and Southern Plains, and encompassing at-risk populations an order of magnitude larger. The distinction between chronic and acute risk necessitates a dual-strategy approach to fire management, combining long-term mitigation with agile, short-term operational responses. This research provides a new framework for understanding and managing the dynamic nature of contemporary WF risk on a national scale.