Will the Baima landslide evolve into a catastrophic rock avalanche?
摘要
To accurately predict whether the Baima landslide in Guizhou, China will evolve into a catastrophic rock avalanche, an integrated approach was employed to investigate the deformation process, geological structure, and disaster-effect regions. Geological surveys were conducted to identify excavation activities and structural cracks at the rear and front edges, indicating a large potential failure volume. Long-term monitoring with differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR) from 2015 to 2024 was performed, and the results showed a deformation sequence of gradual subsidence, temporary stabilization, and renewed rapid sinking, which was strongly influenced by coal mining. A maximum cumulative displacement of 2.98 m was recorded. High-resolution terrain and fracture data were obtained through terrestrial laser scanning, and three dominant fracture sets were identified. Electrical resistivity tomography was applied, and multiple zones of fractured and weak rock masses, as well as extensive goaf areas, were revealed. A discrete element model was then constructed using these datasets, and the simulations demonstrated that renewed excavation would likely induce high-speed, long-runout failure. Maximum velocities of 29.3 m/s, displacements of 1168.5 m, and total movement duration of 204 s were simulated. Predicted consequences included the damage of 282 buildings, 3.32 km of roads, and 1.67 km2 of farmland, with estimated economic losses exceeding 150 million yuan. The proposed approach provides a methodological framework for the prediction of rapid, long-runout landslides and emphasizes the urgent need for strict management of mining activities.