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<p>Debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards, posing a serious threat to human lives and infrastructure in mountainous regions. Effective mitigation requires the accurate identification of high-risk zones and the integration of structural and nature-based solutions, supported by early warning mechanisms. In the Hunza Valley of northern Pakistan, steep slopes, fragile geology, and an arid climate create conducive conditions for mass movements, while intense rainfall, snowmelt, and seismic activity act as frequent triggers. This study investigates debris flow hazards in the Shatoobar Nala watershed of Gulmit town employing the RAMMS-DF numerical simulation model, combined with multi-source remote sensing and detailed field observations. A back-analysis of the June 27, 2022, debris flow event, responsible for extensive damage to local infrastructure, environment, and communities, was performed. Model calibration, based on observed runout, yielded key parameters (friction coefficient µ = 0.06; turbulent coefficient ξ = 350&#xa0;m/s<sup>2</sup>). Key model parameters were calibrated to replicate the observed runout distance, such as the friction coefficient (µ = 0.06) and turbulent coefficient (ξ = 350&#xa0;m/s<sup>2</sup>). Triggering analysis revealed that the event was primarily driven by prolonged temperature increases that accelerated snowmelt, ultimately leading to slope failure and debris mobilization. Four potential release areas were analyzed under varying scenarios using hydrograph approach to simulate initiation, movement, and deposition patterns. These simulations provided critical insights into debris flow dynamics and formed the basis for scenario-specific hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments. The findings emphasize the need for robust risk management strategies, including enhanced early warning systems, adaptive land-use planning, infrastructure fortification, and comprehensive emergency response protocols. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of snowmelt-induced debris flows, offering valuable insights to improve resilience against such hazards in the Gulmit region and similar mountainous environments.</p>

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From snowmelt to disaster: modeling debris flow dynamics in the Shatoobar Nala watershed, Hunza, Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Hameed Ullah Khan,
  • Muhammad Shafique,
  • Javeria Aftab,
  • Uzair Zahid,
  • Ihsan Ullah

摘要

Debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards, posing a serious threat to human lives and infrastructure in mountainous regions. Effective mitigation requires the accurate identification of high-risk zones and the integration of structural and nature-based solutions, supported by early warning mechanisms. In the Hunza Valley of northern Pakistan, steep slopes, fragile geology, and an arid climate create conducive conditions for mass movements, while intense rainfall, snowmelt, and seismic activity act as frequent triggers. This study investigates debris flow hazards in the Shatoobar Nala watershed of Gulmit town employing the RAMMS-DF numerical simulation model, combined with multi-source remote sensing and detailed field observations. A back-analysis of the June 27, 2022, debris flow event, responsible for extensive damage to local infrastructure, environment, and communities, was performed. Model calibration, based on observed runout, yielded key parameters (friction coefficient µ = 0.06; turbulent coefficient ξ = 350 m/s2). Key model parameters were calibrated to replicate the observed runout distance, such as the friction coefficient (µ = 0.06) and turbulent coefficient (ξ = 350 m/s2). Triggering analysis revealed that the event was primarily driven by prolonged temperature increases that accelerated snowmelt, ultimately leading to slope failure and debris mobilization. Four potential release areas were analyzed under varying scenarios using hydrograph approach to simulate initiation, movement, and deposition patterns. These simulations provided critical insights into debris flow dynamics and formed the basis for scenario-specific hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments. The findings emphasize the need for robust risk management strategies, including enhanced early warning systems, adaptive land-use planning, infrastructure fortification, and comprehensive emergency response protocols. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of snowmelt-induced debris flows, offering valuable insights to improve resilience against such hazards in the Gulmit region and similar mountainous environments.