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<p>The study assessed the vulnerability of Varandey, a shift settlement located in the Arctic zone of Russia on the coast of the Barents Sea serving as a hub for marine transportation of hydrocarbons, to floods. The causes and consequences of the catastrophic flooding caused by a storm surge in 2010 were analyzed. The paper presents the results of storm surge height forecasting using a series of retrospective sea level observations at the Varandey meteorological station, as well as flood zone projections for different surge heights based on digital elevation models. An assessment of the replacement cost of fixed assets located in the areas of potential flooding at different surge levels is provided. Calculations showed that in the event of a storm surge with a 1/100 probability, fixed assets with a replacement cost of approximately $9&#xa0;million (in 2024 prices) will be within the flood zone. The amount of indirect losses from the suspension of oil transportation through the terminal is estimated at about $140&#xa0;million (for every 10 days of restoration work).</p>

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Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure to extreme floodings: case study of Varandey area, Barents Sea, Russian Arctic

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Stanislav A. Ogorodov,
  • Svetlana V. Badina,
  • Anna V. Novikova,
  • Natalia N. Shabanova,
  • Alisa V. Baranskaya

摘要

The study assessed the vulnerability of Varandey, a shift settlement located in the Arctic zone of Russia on the coast of the Barents Sea serving as a hub for marine transportation of hydrocarbons, to floods. The causes and consequences of the catastrophic flooding caused by a storm surge in 2010 were analyzed. The paper presents the results of storm surge height forecasting using a series of retrospective sea level observations at the Varandey meteorological station, as well as flood zone projections for different surge heights based on digital elevation models. An assessment of the replacement cost of fixed assets located in the areas of potential flooding at different surge levels is provided. Calculations showed that in the event of a storm surge with a 1/100 probability, fixed assets with a replacement cost of approximately $9 million (in 2024 prices) will be within the flood zone. The amount of indirect losses from the suspension of oil transportation through the terminal is estimated at about $140 million (for every 10 days of restoration work).