Modeling environmental drivers and socio-economic/human predictors of forest fire outbreaks in Algeria
摘要
Forest fires in the El Tarf province of Algeria have led to substantial environmental degradation, including biodiversity loss and habitat destruction. The proximity of these fires to human settlements and agricultural zones amplifies the associated risks. The devastating fires of 2022 in this region underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive investigation into their underlying causes and the development of effective prevention strategies. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors contributing to the locations of fire outbreaks, including topography, fuel conditions, human presence, landscape characteristics, and spatial elements. Climate variables were excluded from the analysis due to their insufficient explanation of localized variability in fire outbreaks, as fuel conditions inherently reflect prevailing climatic conditions. The methodology employed involves the collection and analysis of fire outbreak data from the 2022 season, including landscape metrics and topographic variables obtained through satellite imagery and geographic information system (GIS) tools. A series of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were then developed to assess the impact of various factors on fire occurrence. The results revealed that increased proximity to urban areas significantly raised fire risk (p < 0.001), while greater distance to cropland (p < 0.001) and higher wet forest coverage (p < 0.001) were associated with decreased fire risk. Elevation and proximity to water bodies were also significant factors influencing fire probability. These findings underscore the complex interplay between environmental and anthropogenic factors in fire risk dynamics, highlighting the urgent need for a comprehensive, coordinated response to protect both the environment and human well-being.