Spatiotemporal assessment of extreme rainfall events in the Wainganga river basin using CMIP6 climate models
摘要
Climate Change is a natural phenomenon, but due to current anthropogenic and natural uncertainties and shifts, these changes lead to occurrence of various types of extreme events. The current study focuses on the Weather and Climatic Extreme Events, concerning the precipitation and its dynamic shifts in the Wainganga River, India. The basin is a major tributary of the River Godavari, the biggest peninsular river in India. It offers various flora and fauna, food, agriculture, and agroforestry products and acts as the major income source for the local population. The extreme event analysis uses a multi-model ensemble approach of six Global Climate Models and an extreme event indices technique. The study incorporates fourteen rainfall-based extreme indices, and the analysis is carried out using spatiotemporal analysis for the whole river basin, the MK test to analyse the trend of rainfall extremes, and box plots for determining variable shifts in rainfall for the Wainganga River Basin. The study findings show that the western region of the basin projects a decrease in rainfall, which can lead to the occurrence of drought-based extreme events. At the same time, the eastern ridge projects heavy and intense rainfall trends, projecting to be a hotspot for flood-based events. The study also focuses on how future projections might show short-duration rainfall dominating over the longer duration, contributing prominently to the total rainfall. The study can be helpful to the decision-makers and policymakers who need to take appropriate steps for sustainable and efficient planning and strategies.