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<p>In this study, the MODFLOW subsidence package (SUB), was employed to investigate the subsidence rate associated with excessive groundwater extraction across the Borkhar Plain in Iran. A persistent decline in the groundwater level, resulting in aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence, has been caused by the prolonged over-extraction of groundwater and reduced flow in the Zayandeh Rud River, which runs through this plain. A MODFLOW model was utilized to simulate steady-state (September 2013) and transient conditions spanning from 2013 to 2023, with RMSE of 0.45 and 0.89. Simulations using the SUB package within MODFLOW were conducted by incorporating an innovative approach that employs a calibration process utilizing InSAR data to estimate two essential parameters for the simulation: Elastic and Inelastic skeletal-specific storage values. The calculations indicated an average subsidence rate of 190&#xa0;mm/year. Satellite-based observations, particularly InSAR data, along with field evidence including measured land subsidence in parts of the Borkhar Plain (e.g., Isfahan Airport), structural cracking in both historic and newly constructed buildings, and the rupture of water transmission pipelines, collectively support the plausibility of this subsidence estimate. To address the issue, several management scenarios were analyzed, focusing on the Zayandehroud River drought basin which explored the impact of different annual flow rates for the river, ranging in 57, 84 and 234MCM/year. scenarios were further examined under three sub-scenarios: reducing wells-extraction by 30%, blocking municipal wells, and combined strategies. The results indicated that by increasing the annual flow rate to 234MCM/year, restricting wells-extraction by 30% and blocking municipal wells, the subsidence rate, which was 23&#xa0;mm/year in the baseline scenario, could be reduced to zero in September 2033. These findings indicate that the SUB-package can be employed in regions where historical data sources are insufficient.</p>

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Implementing groundwater management strategies to mitigate human-induced subsidence through numerical simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Hadi Ebrahimi,
  • Abdorreza Vaezihir

摘要

In this study, the MODFLOW subsidence package (SUB), was employed to investigate the subsidence rate associated with excessive groundwater extraction across the Borkhar Plain in Iran. A persistent decline in the groundwater level, resulting in aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence, has been caused by the prolonged over-extraction of groundwater and reduced flow in the Zayandeh Rud River, which runs through this plain. A MODFLOW model was utilized to simulate steady-state (September 2013) and transient conditions spanning from 2013 to 2023, with RMSE of 0.45 and 0.89. Simulations using the SUB package within MODFLOW were conducted by incorporating an innovative approach that employs a calibration process utilizing InSAR data to estimate two essential parameters for the simulation: Elastic and Inelastic skeletal-specific storage values. The calculations indicated an average subsidence rate of 190 mm/year. Satellite-based observations, particularly InSAR data, along with field evidence including measured land subsidence in parts of the Borkhar Plain (e.g., Isfahan Airport), structural cracking in both historic and newly constructed buildings, and the rupture of water transmission pipelines, collectively support the plausibility of this subsidence estimate. To address the issue, several management scenarios were analyzed, focusing on the Zayandehroud River drought basin which explored the impact of different annual flow rates for the river, ranging in 57, 84 and 234MCM/year. scenarios were further examined under three sub-scenarios: reducing wells-extraction by 30%, blocking municipal wells, and combined strategies. The results indicated that by increasing the annual flow rate to 234MCM/year, restricting wells-extraction by 30% and blocking municipal wells, the subsidence rate, which was 23 mm/year in the baseline scenario, could be reduced to zero in September 2033. These findings indicate that the SUB-package can be employed in regions where historical data sources are insufficient.