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<p>Extreme heat events are among the deadliest natural hazards, with urban populations in arid regions facing increasingly severe thermal stress due to climate change and rapid urbanization. This study presents a comprehensive 24-year (2001–2024) risk assessment of heat hazards in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, using physiologically relevant indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), to measure evolving thermal stress patterns and related health risks. Through systematic analysis of hourly meteorological data, we reveal crucial insights into the magnitude and changing nature of heat hazards in this expanding desert megacity. The heat hazard analysis indicates alarming patterns: UTCI-based extreme heat events consistently exceeded 130–150&#xa0;h annually, with peak durations reaching nine hours and over 1,100 recorded events. WBGT-based hazardous conditions, though less frequent, showed a concerning upward trend after 2015, with annual exposure surpassing 25&#xa0;h in 2020–2021. Mann–Kendall trend analysis identified statistically significant rises in thermal stress, with UTCI showing notable nighttime warming (suggesting urban heat island intensification) and WBGT demonstrating steady upward trends across all hours, with slopes of 0.055&#xa0;°C/year. Climate sensitivity analysis found that wet bulb temperature is the main driver for both indices, with UTCI additionally influenced by air temperature and wind speed, while WBGT is more strongly affected by solar irradiance and humidity. These findings point to increasing heat hazard risks that surpass current adaptive capacity and threaten public health, especially for vulnerable populations including outdoor workers, the elderly, and those lacking adequate cooling infrastructure. The study provides critial baseline data for heat hazard early warning systems, urban climate adaptation strategies, and risk mitigation policies crucial for developing resilient communities amid intensifying climate extremes.</p>

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Escalating heat hazard risk in arid urban environments: a two-decade assessment of thermal stress patterns and health risks using UTCI and WBGT indices in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Abdulla Al Kafy,
  • Saleh Alsulamy,
  • Abdulaziz M. Alsaleh

摘要

Extreme heat events are among the deadliest natural hazards, with urban populations in arid regions facing increasingly severe thermal stress due to climate change and rapid urbanization. This study presents a comprehensive 24-year (2001–2024) risk assessment of heat hazards in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, using physiologically relevant indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), to measure evolving thermal stress patterns and related health risks. Through systematic analysis of hourly meteorological data, we reveal crucial insights into the magnitude and changing nature of heat hazards in this expanding desert megacity. The heat hazard analysis indicates alarming patterns: UTCI-based extreme heat events consistently exceeded 130–150 h annually, with peak durations reaching nine hours and over 1,100 recorded events. WBGT-based hazardous conditions, though less frequent, showed a concerning upward trend after 2015, with annual exposure surpassing 25 h in 2020–2021. Mann–Kendall trend analysis identified statistically significant rises in thermal stress, with UTCI showing notable nighttime warming (suggesting urban heat island intensification) and WBGT demonstrating steady upward trends across all hours, with slopes of 0.055 °C/year. Climate sensitivity analysis found that wet bulb temperature is the main driver for both indices, with UTCI additionally influenced by air temperature and wind speed, while WBGT is more strongly affected by solar irradiance and humidity. These findings point to increasing heat hazard risks that surpass current adaptive capacity and threaten public health, especially for vulnerable populations including outdoor workers, the elderly, and those lacking adequate cooling infrastructure. The study provides critial baseline data for heat hazard early warning systems, urban climate adaptation strategies, and risk mitigation policies crucial for developing resilient communities amid intensifying climate extremes.