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<p>Structural flood interventions can unintentionally suppress individual adaptation by reducing perceived risk, posing long-term resilience challenges. This study presents a calibrated agent-based model (ABM) that integrates ice-jam flood hazard, ice-jam flood risk, and human adaptation with empirical data to simulate the dynamics of ice-jam flood risk. Using Fort McMurray, Canada, as a case study, the model evaluates five policy scenarios—baseline, financial incentive, risk communication, social influence, and combined policy—under conditions with and without artificial ice breakage. The model reveals that structural interventions may reduce short-term hazard but weaken adaptive behavior, especially in scenarios reliant on awareness or peer influence. In contrast, combined strategies incorporating financial and psychosocial elements sustain adaptation and minimize risk. The framework offers a transferable method for evaluating human–environment interactions in flood-prone regions and contributes to disaster risk reduction by highlighting behavioral trade-offs in policy design. Results have implications for flood resilience strategies under climate change in cold-region and riverine communities globally.</p>

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Modeling human adaptation to ice-jam flood risk: a calibrated agent-based policy evaluation framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Mohammad Ghoreishi,
  • Brandon Bellows,
  • Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt

摘要

Structural flood interventions can unintentionally suppress individual adaptation by reducing perceived risk, posing long-term resilience challenges. This study presents a calibrated agent-based model (ABM) that integrates ice-jam flood hazard, ice-jam flood risk, and human adaptation with empirical data to simulate the dynamics of ice-jam flood risk. Using Fort McMurray, Canada, as a case study, the model evaluates five policy scenarios—baseline, financial incentive, risk communication, social influence, and combined policy—under conditions with and without artificial ice breakage. The model reveals that structural interventions may reduce short-term hazard but weaken adaptive behavior, especially in scenarios reliant on awareness or peer influence. In contrast, combined strategies incorporating financial and psychosocial elements sustain adaptation and minimize risk. The framework offers a transferable method for evaluating human–environment interactions in flood-prone regions and contributes to disaster risk reduction by highlighting behavioral trade-offs in policy design. Results have implications for flood resilience strategies under climate change in cold-region and riverine communities globally.