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<p><?tk 1?>Boreal forests, despite being located in regions with low temperatures and highhumidity, are highly vulnerable to wildfires. The specific factors controlling wildfireoccurrence and spread in northern latitudes remain insufficiently understood. Thisstudy aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of wildfire susceptibility in theRepublic of Karelia, with a particular focus on the role of geological settings alongsideclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. Wildfire data for 2005–2024 werecompiled from FIRMS. All fires were classified by size into small (&lt; 100 ha) and large(&gt; 100 ha). For each fire, average values were extracted for a set of predictor variables:geological structure (Quaternary sediments), topographic indices (elevation, slope, TWI), climate data (maximum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solarradiation) and anthropogenic factors (distance to roads and settlements). To assessthe relative contribution of each predictor to fire occurrence, the Recursive FeatureElimination (RFE) method, utilizing Random Forest (RF), was employed as thebaseline model. The results reveal that the largest wildfires are predominantlyassociated with glacio-lacustrine sandy and moraine deposits, which provide welldrainedsoils and favorable conditions for biomass accumulation. Topographicvariables, particularly slope and topographic wetness index, emerged as the strongestpredictors; however, geological factors also demonstrated an independent contribution,reflecting their role in shaping vegetation distribution and hydrological conditions. Themodels achieved high predictive performance (AUC = 0.97). The obtained resultsdemonstrate the necessity of accounting for geological factors in fire vulnerabilityassessments.</p>

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The influence of geological factors on fire vulnerability in Northwestern Russia’s boreal region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • N. Krutskikh,
  • I. Kosinova

摘要

Boreal forests, despite being located in regions with low temperatures and highhumidity, are highly vulnerable to wildfires. The specific factors controlling wildfireoccurrence and spread in northern latitudes remain insufficiently understood. Thisstudy aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of wildfire susceptibility in theRepublic of Karelia, with a particular focus on the role of geological settings alongsideclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors. Wildfire data for 2005–2024 werecompiled from FIRMS. All fires were classified by size into small (< 100 ha) and large(> 100 ha). For each fire, average values were extracted for a set of predictor variables:geological structure (Quaternary sediments), topographic indices (elevation, slope, TWI), climate data (maximum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solarradiation) and anthropogenic factors (distance to roads and settlements). To assessthe relative contribution of each predictor to fire occurrence, the Recursive FeatureElimination (RFE) method, utilizing Random Forest (RF), was employed as thebaseline model. The results reveal that the largest wildfires are predominantlyassociated with glacio-lacustrine sandy and moraine deposits, which provide welldrainedsoils and favorable conditions for biomass accumulation. Topographicvariables, particularly slope and topographic wetness index, emerged as the strongestpredictors; however, geological factors also demonstrated an independent contribution,reflecting their role in shaping vegetation distribution and hydrological conditions. Themodels achieved high predictive performance (AUC = 0.97). The obtained resultsdemonstrate the necessity of accounting for geological factors in fire vulnerabilityassessments.