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<p>Compound Drought-Heatwave Events (CDHEs) are increasingly making water, agriculture, and the Horn of Africa’s (HOA) ecosystems in serious risk. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological indices, spatiotemporal patterns and impacts of CDHEs on Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti (2000–2022) were analyzed in this study. Agricultural drought thresholds were Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) &lt; 0.25, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) ≤  − 0.5, and Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) &lt; 30%, while heatwaves were defined as Land Surface Temperature (LST) &gt; the 90th percentile for at least three consecutive days. Overlapping extremes were used to identify CDHEs. Results show a 140% cumulative expansion of CDHE-impacted areas, with &gt; 45% of the HOA impacted annually by 2022. Regression models linked CDHE exposure to 27% (± 4.2%) and 35% (± 5.1%) reductions in harvested area and crop production, respectively, with maize and sorghum, key staples, most severely affected (β =  − 0.47 to − 0.53, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01). Southern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia rainfed systems suffered more than 30% losses, driven by soil degradation, water stress, and heat stress at sensitive growth stages. In contrast, Ethiopia’s irrigated highlands were resilient (&lt; 10% losses) due to drought-tolerant crops and water management. Modeled losses agreed with ground surveys (e.g., 38% vs. 41% reported maize decline in Somalia). The study accentuates the exposure of rainfed agriculture to rising CDHEs and stresses region-specific adaptation strategies, such as climate-resilient crops and irrigation expansion, as a priority for safeguarding food security in the HOA.</p>

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Increasing compound drought and heatwave events in the Horn of Africa and its effect on agriculture

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月11日

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  • Nasser A. M. Abdelrahim,
  • Shuanggen Jin

摘要

Compound Drought-Heatwave Events (CDHEs) are increasingly making water, agriculture, and the Horn of Africa’s (HOA) ecosystems in serious risk. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological indices, spatiotemporal patterns and impacts of CDHEs on Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti (2000–2022) were analyzed in this study. Agricultural drought thresholds were Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) < 0.25, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) ≤  − 0.5, and Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) < 30%, while heatwaves were defined as Land Surface Temperature (LST) > the 90th percentile for at least three consecutive days. Overlapping extremes were used to identify CDHEs. Results show a 140% cumulative expansion of CDHE-impacted areas, with > 45% of the HOA impacted annually by 2022. Regression models linked CDHE exposure to 27% (± 4.2%) and 35% (± 5.1%) reductions in harvested area and crop production, respectively, with maize and sorghum, key staples, most severely affected (β =  − 0.47 to − 0.53, p < 0.01). Southern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia rainfed systems suffered more than 30% losses, driven by soil degradation, water stress, and heat stress at sensitive growth stages. In contrast, Ethiopia’s irrigated highlands were resilient (< 10% losses) due to drought-tolerant crops and water management. Modeled losses agreed with ground surveys (e.g., 38% vs. 41% reported maize decline in Somalia). The study accentuates the exposure of rainfed agriculture to rising CDHEs and stresses region-specific adaptation strategies, such as climate-resilient crops and irrigation expansion, as a priority for safeguarding food security in the HOA.