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<p>Floods have a significant impact on the lives of residents in floodplain areas. The lower Yellow River floodplain is a critical functional zone, supporting livelihoods for 1687 settlements while facing escalating safety and developmental risks due to flood-channel positioning and inadequate infrastructure. This study examines 25&#xa0;years (1995–2020) of relocation patterns for 639 resettled settlements using spatial dynamics, gravity shift, autocorrelation, and geographic detector models. Key findings: Relocation progressed discontinuously, concentrating spatially along the Shandong-Henan border with nonlinear migration distances, forming a linear resettlement belt beyond the floodplain. Risk exposure, economic status, and relocation outcomes showed positive spatial correlations, remaining pivotal in planning. Policy dominance emerged as the strongest relocation driver (single-factor), followed by community willingness; risk, economy, population, and settlement size had weaker influence. Two-factor interactions amplified explanatory power, with policy combined with economic development—central to the third phase—yielding the highest synergy. Findings indicate dynamic prioritization of relocation drivers across socioeconomic transitions, with policy governance predominantly determining implementation efficacy.</p>

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To move or not to move? An investigation of the phenomenon of relocation of settlements in the lower Yellow River floodplain area

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Jiangbo Wang,
  • Jinming Li

摘要

Floods have a significant impact on the lives of residents in floodplain areas. The lower Yellow River floodplain is a critical functional zone, supporting livelihoods for 1687 settlements while facing escalating safety and developmental risks due to flood-channel positioning and inadequate infrastructure. This study examines 25 years (1995–2020) of relocation patterns for 639 resettled settlements using spatial dynamics, gravity shift, autocorrelation, and geographic detector models. Key findings: Relocation progressed discontinuously, concentrating spatially along the Shandong-Henan border with nonlinear migration distances, forming a linear resettlement belt beyond the floodplain. Risk exposure, economic status, and relocation outcomes showed positive spatial correlations, remaining pivotal in planning. Policy dominance emerged as the strongest relocation driver (single-factor), followed by community willingness; risk, economy, population, and settlement size had weaker influence. Two-factor interactions amplified explanatory power, with policy combined with economic development—central to the third phase—yielding the highest synergy. Findings indicate dynamic prioritization of relocation drivers across socioeconomic transitions, with policy governance predominantly determining implementation efficacy.