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<p>As global sea level rise, coral atolls are increasingly susceptible to inundation during high wave and water level events. Equatorial Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of the Republic of Kiribati, experiences notable variability in wave and water levels due to climate and ocean variability driven by El Niño / Southern Oscillation. This study analyzes offshore wave energy spectra (1979–2018) to investigate the causes and impacts of extreme wave events in Tarawa. Hierarchical clustering revealed that El Niño-related westerly wind bursts, Southern Hemisphere tropical and extratropical storms, and Northern Hemisphere storms are the primary drivers of high wave events. Our results also indicate that extreme wave events are more frequent during El Niño conditions, which further amplify coastal vulnerability as water levels are elevated due to downwelling Kelvin waves and thermal expansion. Using a simple one-dimensional wave attenuation model, we estimate that wave height on the lagoon-facing shoreline during El Niño-related westerly wind bursts will increase by up to 89%, with wave energy more than tripling, by 2100 in a high sea level rise scenario (0.83&#xa0;m; SSP5-8.5). The projected increase is less evident for long-distant swells arriving from the Southern or Northern Hemisphere. Model results also suggest that rising sea levels have a greater impact controlling wave energy than reef degradation. These findings highlight the vulnerability of lagoon-facing shorelines, which receive less attention in sea-level rise and inundation research, and are particularly at risk despite being typically exposed to lower wave energy than the ocean-facing shorelines.</p>

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Clustering of historical extreme wave events to assess climate variability in Tarawa Atoll, Republic of Kiribati

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

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  • Julia Mayer,
  • Antonio Espejo,
  • Simon D. Donner

摘要

As global sea level rise, coral atolls are increasingly susceptible to inundation during high wave and water level events. Equatorial Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of the Republic of Kiribati, experiences notable variability in wave and water levels due to climate and ocean variability driven by El Niño / Southern Oscillation. This study analyzes offshore wave energy spectra (1979–2018) to investigate the causes and impacts of extreme wave events in Tarawa. Hierarchical clustering revealed that El Niño-related westerly wind bursts, Southern Hemisphere tropical and extratropical storms, and Northern Hemisphere storms are the primary drivers of high wave events. Our results also indicate that extreme wave events are more frequent during El Niño conditions, which further amplify coastal vulnerability as water levels are elevated due to downwelling Kelvin waves and thermal expansion. Using a simple one-dimensional wave attenuation model, we estimate that wave height on the lagoon-facing shoreline during El Niño-related westerly wind bursts will increase by up to 89%, with wave energy more than tripling, by 2100 in a high sea level rise scenario (0.83 m; SSP5-8.5). The projected increase is less evident for long-distant swells arriving from the Southern or Northern Hemisphere. Model results also suggest that rising sea levels have a greater impact controlling wave energy than reef degradation. These findings highlight the vulnerability of lagoon-facing shorelines, which receive less attention in sea-level rise and inundation research, and are particularly at risk despite being typically exposed to lower wave energy than the ocean-facing shorelines.