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<p>This study uses fractional integration to analyze trends in tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic region. Our analysis covers annual data from 1851 to 2022 on storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Findings indicate the presence of long-term components in the storm and storm daily series, though these patterns appear less evident for hurricanes and major hurricanes. A notable increase in trend estimates is observed in recent times, especially for storms and major hurricanes. Subsample analysis reveals a greater temporal trend, especially in the satellite era. While evidence of long-term persistence is observed in the storm-related series, the same cannot be concluded for hurricanes and major hurricanes due to possible short-term influences. In general, the weather events analyzed are experiencing an increase in their occurrence.</p>

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Time series perspectives on North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a study of fractional integration patterns

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月21日

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  • Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub,
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

摘要

This study uses fractional integration to analyze trends in tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic region. Our analysis covers annual data from 1851 to 2022 on storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Findings indicate the presence of long-term components in the storm and storm daily series, though these patterns appear less evident for hurricanes and major hurricanes. A notable increase in trend estimates is observed in recent times, especially for storms and major hurricanes. Subsample analysis reveals a greater temporal trend, especially in the satellite era. While evidence of long-term persistence is observed in the storm-related series, the same cannot be concluded for hurricanes and major hurricanes due to possible short-term influences. In general, the weather events analyzed are experiencing an increase in their occurrence.