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<p>Heatwaves are extreme climatic events that have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change, posing significant threats to ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. Timely understanding and proactive management of heatwaves are crucial for mitigating their impacts on environment. The Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was calculated using daily temperature data collected across various districts of Telangana, India, from January 1960 to December 2022 to assess the intensity and duration of heatwave events. The study employs various statistical techniques including linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to assess both the direction and intensity of trends. The results indicate a statistically significant increasing trend in heatwave magnitude across most districts. The MMK test confirmed significant upward trends in all districts. ITA showed significant increasing trends at different significance levels (10%, 5%, and 1%) in all districts except Khammam, Nalgonda, and Warangal. Specifically, Adilabad, Hyderabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, and Ranga Reddy districts exhibited significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, while Medak, Nalgonda, and Warangal were significant at 5% and 10% levels. Khammam and Mahbubnagar were significant at the 10% level. The outcomes from the Pettitt’s test showed a significant change point found across the years 1976 and 1977. These findings provide valuable insights into climate dynamics, aiding policymakers in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for extreme heat events.</p>

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Statistical investigation of heatwave trends and change points in Telangana, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月4日

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  • Kona Naga Venkata Lakshmi Laasya,
  • Supriya Kallakuri,
  • Santosha Rathod,
  • Lakshmi Neelima,
  • Debasish Chakraborty,
  • S. Vishnu Shankar,
  • Mrinmoy Ray,
  • Nobin Chandra Paul,
  • Shahid Saleem,
  • Ammaladinne Tharun Kumar,
  • Nirmala Bandumula,
  • Kirttiranjan Baral,
  • K. Sammi Reddy,
  • Anil Kumar

摘要

Heatwaves are extreme climatic events that have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change, posing significant threats to ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. Timely understanding and proactive management of heatwaves are crucial for mitigating their impacts on environment. The Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was calculated using daily temperature data collected across various districts of Telangana, India, from January 1960 to December 2022 to assess the intensity and duration of heatwave events. The study employs various statistical techniques including linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to assess both the direction and intensity of trends. The results indicate a statistically significant increasing trend in heatwave magnitude across most districts. The MMK test confirmed significant upward trends in all districts. ITA showed significant increasing trends at different significance levels (10%, 5%, and 1%) in all districts except Khammam, Nalgonda, and Warangal. Specifically, Adilabad, Hyderabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, and Ranga Reddy districts exhibited significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, while Medak, Nalgonda, and Warangal were significant at 5% and 10% levels. Khammam and Mahbubnagar were significant at the 10% level. The outcomes from the Pettitt’s test showed a significant change point found across the years 1976 and 1977. These findings provide valuable insights into climate dynamics, aiding policymakers in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for extreme heat events.