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<p>Significant progress has been made in modeling landslide susceptibility and debris-flow hazards, yet most existing studies tend to address either the initiation or the propagation stage in isolation. This study seeks to bridge that gap by integrating two advanced models: the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model and the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) tool. The combined framework allows for a holistic assessment of the entire hazard sequence under realistic rainfall scenarios. The framework was applied to a highly landslide-prone region near the Idukki-Kottayam border in Kerala, India, within the Western Ghats. A severe rainfall event on October 16, 2021, which triggered 34 slope failures including multiple debris flows, provided the basis for validation. Unlike many previous studies in India, particularly in the Western Ghats, that often overlook field-measured geotechnical data, this research incorporates both saturated and unsaturated soil properties obtained through comprehensive laboratory testing of field-collected soil samples. Additionally, in situ matric suction was measured using tensiometers, enabling a more precise representation of unsaturated soil behavior in the analyses. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first regional-scale study in this area to quantitatively validate both landslide initiation and debris-flow runout predictions using experimentally derived geotechnical data. Field-based verification demonstrated that TRIGRS successfully identified observed landslide locations, while RAMMS accurately reproduced debris-flow runout, achieving up to 92% accuracy. These findings highlight the potential of the integrated approach to support land-use planning, disaster risk reduction, and mitigation strategies, ultimately reducing the impacts of rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows on vulnerable communities.</p>

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Integrating TRIGRS and RAMMS for the spatiotemporal prediction of rainfall induced landslides and landslide trajectory: a case study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • A. Musaib,
  • V. Aparna,
  • P. V. Divya

摘要

Significant progress has been made in modeling landslide susceptibility and debris-flow hazards, yet most existing studies tend to address either the initiation or the propagation stage in isolation. This study seeks to bridge that gap by integrating two advanced models: the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model and the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) tool. The combined framework allows for a holistic assessment of the entire hazard sequence under realistic rainfall scenarios. The framework was applied to a highly landslide-prone region near the Idukki-Kottayam border in Kerala, India, within the Western Ghats. A severe rainfall event on October 16, 2021, which triggered 34 slope failures including multiple debris flows, provided the basis for validation. Unlike many previous studies in India, particularly in the Western Ghats, that often overlook field-measured geotechnical data, this research incorporates both saturated and unsaturated soil properties obtained through comprehensive laboratory testing of field-collected soil samples. Additionally, in situ matric suction was measured using tensiometers, enabling a more precise representation of unsaturated soil behavior in the analyses. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first regional-scale study in this area to quantitatively validate both landslide initiation and debris-flow runout predictions using experimentally derived geotechnical data. Field-based verification demonstrated that TRIGRS successfully identified observed landslide locations, while RAMMS accurately reproduced debris-flow runout, achieving up to 92% accuracy. These findings highlight the potential of the integrated approach to support land-use planning, disaster risk reduction, and mitigation strategies, ultimately reducing the impacts of rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows on vulnerable communities.