The potential triggering causes of dam collapses: insights into the rock mass weaknesses and given hydraulic or geophysical processes with projection to October 8, 2023, uphill lake dam collapse at Mbankolo, Cameroon
摘要
This paper addresses the potential triggering causes of dam collapses issue through those which may apply to the October 8, 2023, uphill lake dam collapse at Mbankolo (Cameroon); where mass movements are naturally common. Therefore, it probes the rock mass weaknesses and given hydraulic or geophysical processes. Based on geological field experience, the visual perception of rock mass structures and weathering conditions were assessed to define the rock mass strength, as this process matches the geological strength index (GSI). Also, the Hoek-Brown criterion was used to estimate the rock mass decaying rate. As observations, the GSI probably falls between 80 and 60. At the same time the local cohesion c increases and the local friction angle φ decreases with increasing σn values, making the rock mass significantly stronger in its standard state. However, over time, the factor of safety may fall below the 3.0 threshold due to the weathering of the discontinuity surfaces, so that the slope or dam foundation reaches equilibrium limit. Thereafter, low-magnitude earthquake seismic tremors or heavy rain water stresses become sufficient to trigger at least the moving of a rock block. If that were the case with the dam collapse at Mbankolo, then the rock mass may have already been predisposed primarily to failure. Overall, the underlying triggering factors for the dam collapses next to water stresses and seismic tremors are the rock mass self-weaknesses which are conditioned by geology and rock mechanics. Therefore, the continuous and certain processes (i.e. rock conditions) are the facilitating factors, whereas discontinuous and uncertain processes (i.e.; water stresses or seismic tremors) are the accelerating factors. Both factors could have contributed to the uphill lake dam collapse at Mbankolo, as is very often the case.