<p>Climate change driven by global warming has emerged as a critical global issue in recent years, particularly due to its adverse effects on water resources. Some examples of climate change include the drying of small rivers, increased temperatures resulting from heatwaves, more frequent and intense flooding, and prolonged dry seasons that, with time, highlighted the necessity of reinforcing hydrometeorological data analysis and establishing early warning systems to mitigate the associated risks. In this context, this study applies the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods to assess 32&#xa0;years of monthly precipitation data across nine sectors of the Krishna Basin in India. The Krishna Basin was selected due to its vulnerability to climate variability, characterized by irregular rainfall distribution, a warm climate, high population density, and the presence of extensive water infrastructure including dams, reservoirs, and hydropower facilities. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) to evaluate the variability of monthly precipitation, and (2) to determine the mean and standard deviation for the trend analysis. The findings were evaluated against results from conventional time series methods to assess the effectiveness and reliability of the applied approach. As a result, the ITA and the IPTA methods effectively identified temporal shifts and trend behaviors in rainfall patterns across different districts. In fact, the results indicate spatial variability in precipitation trends, with certain districts exhibiting increasing trends and others showing a decline. Such variability reflects the localized impacts of climate change. The application of ITA and IPTA offers a practical approach for trend detection and risk assessment, contributing to informed water resource management under changing climatic conditions.</p>

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Analysis of rainfall for Krishna River Basin using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA)

  • Darshan Mehta,
  • Nisrag Nanavati,
  • Ashabul Kahffi,
  • Sahita Waikhom,
  • Vipin Yadav,
  • Tommaso Caloiero,
  • Hemang Chaudhari

摘要

Climate change driven by global warming has emerged as a critical global issue in recent years, particularly due to its adverse effects on water resources. Some examples of climate change include the drying of small rivers, increased temperatures resulting from heatwaves, more frequent and intense flooding, and prolonged dry seasons that, with time, highlighted the necessity of reinforcing hydrometeorological data analysis and establishing early warning systems to mitigate the associated risks. In this context, this study applies the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods to assess 32 years of monthly precipitation data across nine sectors of the Krishna Basin in India. The Krishna Basin was selected due to its vulnerability to climate variability, characterized by irregular rainfall distribution, a warm climate, high population density, and the presence of extensive water infrastructure including dams, reservoirs, and hydropower facilities. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) to evaluate the variability of monthly precipitation, and (2) to determine the mean and standard deviation for the trend analysis. The findings were evaluated against results from conventional time series methods to assess the effectiveness and reliability of the applied approach. As a result, the ITA and the IPTA methods effectively identified temporal shifts and trend behaviors in rainfall patterns across different districts. In fact, the results indicate spatial variability in precipitation trends, with certain districts exhibiting increasing trends and others showing a decline. Such variability reflects the localized impacts of climate change. The application of ITA and IPTA offers a practical approach for trend detection and risk assessment, contributing to informed water resource management under changing climatic conditions.