Understanding meteorological drought dynamics in Tekeze watershed using geospatial technology, northern Ethiopia
摘要
Meteorological droughts are recurrent incidents in Ethiopia affecting farming operations and livelihoods. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological drought using geo-spatial techniques. The analysis utilized data from the CHIRPS rainfall estimates to assess meteorological drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) were used to analyse the data, whereas crop yields and station recorded rainfall was used to validate data. There is a strong positive relationship between CHIRPS and the rainfall measurements from the 12 stations. Lalibela stands out with an impressive correlation (r = 0.94), suggesting that its rainfall records align more closely and consistently with the CHIRPS data than the other stations do. These differences don’t point to any data quality problems; instead, they highlight the variations in rainfall across different areas since mean CHIRPS rain are used for computing the relationships. The average r-value for all the stations was 0.93. The R2 values of the cereal crops range from 0.75 to 0.86, indicating that the independent variables explain a high degree of variability in crop yields. The analysis of SPI indicates severe droughts in 2014 and 2015, moderate conditions in 2009, and 2010, and mild droughts in 2000, 2004, 2011, 2013, 2017–2018, 2020–2021 and 2023. The drought recurrence interval is approximately two years. The analysis of PNI showed that all years fall under the “normal” drought class, ranging on average from 84.17% in 2014 to 114.12% in 2006. This study underscores the critical role of geo-spatial techniques and meteorological indices in assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts. The study recommends further research, establishing early warning systems, and implementing targeted interventions for water conservation and crop diversification.