Scholarlink

<p>The U.S. Military maintains many bases that are vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. To address base preparations, commanders mandate preparedness levels that increase in effort and cost as a TC approaches a base. Base preparations are expensive, so commanders prefer to avoid unnecessary preparations. But underpreparing can result in injury and damage to expensive assets that likely far outweigh preparation costs, and this logic is used to justify efforts to improve TC forecasting in the military. But what are the preparation costs and resultant savings? This is a simple question that is difficult to answer in a rigorous way. The National Hurricane Center has a simple computation for measuring value of reducing the coastline warned with its “one million dollars per mile” rule. The U.S. Military cannot use this rule since it is comprised of distinct bases with large separation between them. In a prior effort, the authors developed a cost-loss model solely for asset protection and damages at bases. In this follow-on effort the authors expand the cost-loss model to address evacuations, injuries, and forecast credibility with rough estimates for each. This new cost-loss model likely provides a more realistic estimate of costs and losses and is therefore more likely to better represent the complex and difficult issues commanders use in their base preparedness decisions. The cost-loss model is applied to real cases with estimated savings varying from $200K per forecasted event for a small base (Chinhae/Pohang) with only 500 personnel to over $70&#xa0;M per forecasted event for a large base (Yokosuka Naval Base) with an estimated U.S. Military population of 24,000 and a fleet of ships to sortie. With little effort, this methodology could be applied to other regions of interest such as islands, metropolitan areas, or even small countries.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Assessing economic value of skilled tropical cyclone forecasts at sites

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

查看全文
  • Sneh Gulati,
  • Charles R. Sampson,
  • Madeline Laesser,
  • Allan Howard

摘要

The U.S. Military maintains many bases that are vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. To address base preparations, commanders mandate preparedness levels that increase in effort and cost as a TC approaches a base. Base preparations are expensive, so commanders prefer to avoid unnecessary preparations. But underpreparing can result in injury and damage to expensive assets that likely far outweigh preparation costs, and this logic is used to justify efforts to improve TC forecasting in the military. But what are the preparation costs and resultant savings? This is a simple question that is difficult to answer in a rigorous way. The National Hurricane Center has a simple computation for measuring value of reducing the coastline warned with its “one million dollars per mile” rule. The U.S. Military cannot use this rule since it is comprised of distinct bases with large separation between them. In a prior effort, the authors developed a cost-loss model solely for asset protection and damages at bases. In this follow-on effort the authors expand the cost-loss model to address evacuations, injuries, and forecast credibility with rough estimates for each. This new cost-loss model likely provides a more realistic estimate of costs and losses and is therefore more likely to better represent the complex and difficult issues commanders use in their base preparedness decisions. The cost-loss model is applied to real cases with estimated savings varying from $200K per forecasted event for a small base (Chinhae/Pohang) with only 500 personnel to over $70 M per forecasted event for a large base (Yokosuka Naval Base) with an estimated U.S. Military population of 24,000 and a fleet of ships to sortie. With little effort, this methodology could be applied to other regions of interest such as islands, metropolitan areas, or even small countries.