<p>Climate change is likely to increase both frequent and severe wildland fires. However, the pattern of grassland fire occurrences studied insufficiently under the future global warming conditions. Using historical ignition record and environmental variables, we developed a Random-Forest-based predictive model, then with the downscaled future climate data to explore future pattern of fire occurrence across Inner Mongolia. Our findings indicate that (1) Under all the future scenarios, the precipitation rate and temperature will increase significantly compared with the current stage in Inner Mongolia, whereas soil moisture and near-surface wind speed will decline. (2) Currently, the probability of grassland fire is highest in eastern Inner Mongolia and lowest in the west. (3) Significant changes are anticipated in the pattern of grassland fire occurrence in Inner Mongolia in the future. The probability of grassland fires occurrence is projected to increase in the central and western Inner Mongolia and the eastern Hulunbuir, while a pronounced decrease is expected in western Hulunbuir. These results provide actionable guidance for revising fire-management strategies and safeguarding the sustainable development of Inner Mongolia’s grassland ecosystems.</p>