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<p>The article presents an improved probabilistic method, implemented in the ProLom software, for locating early instrumental earthquakes based on the joint analysis of macroseismic intensity data and instrumental seismic wave arrival times. Developed for earthquakes with very limited data, it was applied to six events in the Baikal region (1902–1925), where parameters could not previously be calculated using only macroseismic or instrumental data. The method’s effectiveness was demonstrated through testing with modern earthquake data using simulated limited datasets, typical of the six analyzed events. Computed epicenters, with varying degrees of accuracy, are predominantly located in the southern Baikal region, mostly associated with the seismically active Baikal rift, with some plausible locations in adjacent western Transbaikalia. The method enables reliable reconstruction of early instrumental earthquakes, refining regional earthquake catalogs and improving seismic hazard assessments. However, its accuracy depends on the number, distribution, and reliability of intensity data points and the availability of instrumental records.</p>

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Method for probabilistic location of early instrumental earthquakes based on their macroseismic and instrumental data: evaluation of effectiveness and application for the Baikal Region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月16日

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  • Alexey N. Morozov,
  • Alena I. Filippova,
  • Vladimir E. Asming,
  • Yan B. Radziminovich,
  • Natalya V. Vaganova

摘要

The article presents an improved probabilistic method, implemented in the ProLom software, for locating early instrumental earthquakes based on the joint analysis of macroseismic intensity data and instrumental seismic wave arrival times. Developed for earthquakes with very limited data, it was applied to six events in the Baikal region (1902–1925), where parameters could not previously be calculated using only macroseismic or instrumental data. The method’s effectiveness was demonstrated through testing with modern earthquake data using simulated limited datasets, typical of the six analyzed events. Computed epicenters, with varying degrees of accuracy, are predominantly located in the southern Baikal region, mostly associated with the seismically active Baikal rift, with some plausible locations in adjacent western Transbaikalia. The method enables reliable reconstruction of early instrumental earthquakes, refining regional earthquake catalogs and improving seismic hazard assessments. However, its accuracy depends on the number, distribution, and reliability of intensity data points and the availability of instrumental records.