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<p>In January 2023, Joshimath, an urbanized town in the Chamoli district of Uttarakhand, India, experienced rapid deformation that led to large infrastructure damage. This study determined the long-term deformation rate in Joshimath using the SBAS InSAR technique on Sentinel-1 datasets from ascending and descending orbits. Results indicate a long-term deformation phenomenon in Joshimath, with notable seasonal velocities and high annual cumulative deformation. It was observed that two heavy precipitation events after the Raini flash flood event in 2021 critically impacted the slope of Joshimath since displacement rate across the Joshimath town abruptly increased from − 8 to −12&#xa0;cm/yr in 2022, leading to the January 2023 deformation event. After the event, the slope was observed to be stabilizing based on lower displacement rates between − 4 to −5&#xa0;cm/yr in the upper region of Joshimath; whereas, the lower region of Joshimath still shows higher cumulative displacement values between − 8 and − 10&#xa0;cm/yr. High-resolution RapidEye and PlanetScope optical datasets and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data were used to investigate the physical causes of the deformation. Results indicated that deformation in Joshimath is not strongly correlated with vegetation loss, suggesting that deforestation is not related to deformation in Joshimath. We found the LOS deformation correlated with rainfall at 12 months interval using lead-lag analysis indicating rainfall is a potential causative factor causing deformation in Joshimath. Moreover, the long-term monsoonal rainfall anomaly analysis from 1970 to 2023 revealed a significant rise in extreme rainfall events across Joshimath since 2010. The period of rise in extreme rainfall intensity and frequency since 2010 matches the period of high deformation rate observed in different parts of Joshimath, indicating that high rainfall depths have enhanced the rate of deformation in Joshimath since 2010. Results from this work emphasize the necessity for continuous monitoring to manage the escalating deformation risk in Joshimath, and possibly other urbanized centres in the Himalayas.</p>

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Investigation of physical causes for long-term deformation at urbanized towns in Indian himalayas: a case study for Joshimath, Uttarakhand

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月11日

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  • Krishan Kumar,
  • Arnab Chowdhury,
  • Alok Bhardwaj

摘要

In January 2023, Joshimath, an urbanized town in the Chamoli district of Uttarakhand, India, experienced rapid deformation that led to large infrastructure damage. This study determined the long-term deformation rate in Joshimath using the SBAS InSAR technique on Sentinel-1 datasets from ascending and descending orbits. Results indicate a long-term deformation phenomenon in Joshimath, with notable seasonal velocities and high annual cumulative deformation. It was observed that two heavy precipitation events after the Raini flash flood event in 2021 critically impacted the slope of Joshimath since displacement rate across the Joshimath town abruptly increased from − 8 to −12 cm/yr in 2022, leading to the January 2023 deformation event. After the event, the slope was observed to be stabilizing based on lower displacement rates between − 4 to −5 cm/yr in the upper region of Joshimath; whereas, the lower region of Joshimath still shows higher cumulative displacement values between − 8 and − 10 cm/yr. High-resolution RapidEye and PlanetScope optical datasets and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data were used to investigate the physical causes of the deformation. Results indicated that deformation in Joshimath is not strongly correlated with vegetation loss, suggesting that deforestation is not related to deformation in Joshimath. We found the LOS deformation correlated with rainfall at 12 months interval using lead-lag analysis indicating rainfall is a potential causative factor causing deformation in Joshimath. Moreover, the long-term monsoonal rainfall anomaly analysis from 1970 to 2023 revealed a significant rise in extreme rainfall events across Joshimath since 2010. The period of rise in extreme rainfall intensity and frequency since 2010 matches the period of high deformation rate observed in different parts of Joshimath, indicating that high rainfall depths have enhanced the rate of deformation in Joshimath since 2010. Results from this work emphasize the necessity for continuous monitoring to manage the escalating deformation risk in Joshimath, and possibly other urbanized centres in the Himalayas.