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<p>The usefulness of identifying seismically active zones in the Altai-Sayan region has been demonstrated through the analysis of anomalies in three morphometric terrain parameters (depth of vertical dissection, average height, and difference between second-order and third-order base level surfaces), processed using fuzzy logic tools. According to GNSS data and earthquake focal mechanisms, active faults strike-slip tectonic settings, where the major compression axis strikes northeast. Computer simulations have shown that this process leads to the accumulation of extensional horizontal stress in zones occupying approximately 50% of the investigated area, where 72% of all earthquake epicenters are localized and 83% of those have a moment magnitude of 5.5 or greater. The results of the morphometric terrain analysis and computer simulation enabled the delineation of 13 potential earthquake source zones with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 5.5. Their configuration aligns well with observed recent seismicity trends and paleoseismological evidence.</p>

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Identification of potential earthquake source locations zones in the Altai-Sayan mountain region: a new approach based on the morphometric terrain analysis and the geodynamic modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月27日

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  • A. L. Sobisevich,
  • G. M. Steblov,
  • A. A. Sentsov,
  • E. V. Deev,
  • L. V. Eppelbaum,
  • A. O. Agibalov,
  • I. M. Aleshin,
  • G. R. Balashov,
  • O. T. Kamenev,
  • A. N. Kotov,
  • V. M. Makeev,
  • V. P. Perederin,
  • F. V. Perederin,
  • N. K. Rosenberg,
  • K. I. Kholodkov,
  • O. V. Safronov

摘要

The usefulness of identifying seismically active zones in the Altai-Sayan region has been demonstrated through the analysis of anomalies in three morphometric terrain parameters (depth of vertical dissection, average height, and difference between second-order and third-order base level surfaces), processed using fuzzy logic tools. According to GNSS data and earthquake focal mechanisms, active faults strike-slip tectonic settings, where the major compression axis strikes northeast. Computer simulations have shown that this process leads to the accumulation of extensional horizontal stress in zones occupying approximately 50% of the investigated area, where 72% of all earthquake epicenters are localized and 83% of those have a moment magnitude of 5.5 or greater. The results of the morphometric terrain analysis and computer simulation enabled the delineation of 13 potential earthquake source zones with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 5.5. Their configuration aligns well with observed recent seismicity trends and paleoseismological evidence.