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<p>The present study aims to investigate the suitability of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRFv4.3.3) in simulating heavy to extreme rainfall due to extreme weather conditions over complex terrain in the Indian North-Western Himalayan region. For this, high-resolution model simulation (1&#xa0;km × 1&#xa0;km) of the 2013 and 2023 North India flood events caused by extreme weather conditions are performed. A comparative analysis based on model simulations, in-situ observations and reanalysis data suggests that the WRF model is able to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, rainfall and geopotential height, along with mesoscale features such as low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, high humidity and convective instability demonstrating its ability to simulate the atmosphere dynamics leading to extreme precipitation events. Further, the WRF model is found to capture the shifts in meridional wind patterns, transporting moisture into the region and contributing to heavy rainfall.</p>

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Modelling and analysis of extreme weather-induced disasters in Indian North-West Himalayas

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月25日

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  • Saurabh Singh,
  • Piyush Srivastava,
  • Amit Dhiman

摘要

The present study aims to investigate the suitability of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRFv4.3.3) in simulating heavy to extreme rainfall due to extreme weather conditions over complex terrain in the Indian North-Western Himalayan region. For this, high-resolution model simulation (1 km × 1 km) of the 2013 and 2023 North India flood events caused by extreme weather conditions are performed. A comparative analysis based on model simulations, in-situ observations and reanalysis data suggests that the WRF model is able to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, rainfall and geopotential height, along with mesoscale features such as low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, high humidity and convective instability demonstrating its ability to simulate the atmosphere dynamics leading to extreme precipitation events. Further, the WRF model is found to capture the shifts in meridional wind patterns, transporting moisture into the region and contributing to heavy rainfall.