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<p>This study analyses cloudburst events in the Indian Himalayas from 1970 to 2024, revealing an increasing frequency, particularly in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu &amp; Kashmir, and Ladakh. Uttarakhand is the most affected area, Himachal Pradesh experiences frequent events while Jammu &amp; Kashmir and Ladakh show rising trends. Hydrodynamic modelling employed MIKE Hydro River, MIKE 21 FM, and MIKE FLOOD to simulate the events, supported by historical rainfall and discharge data. The MIKE Hydro River NAM model calibrated (2015–2020) and validated (2021–2023), achieved R<sup>2</sup> values of 0.98 and 0.87, and water balance errors of 0.89% and 0.83%, respectively, confirming its reliability for hydrological simulations. A 2D hydrodynamic model simulated the July 16–18, 2018, cloudburst in Uttarkashi, calibrated using Sentinel-1 C-band data with 91.3% inundation extent accuracy. The August 18, 2019, Uttarkashi cloudburst caused a sharp increase in Bhagirathi River discharge from 1,093 at 04:00 to a peak of 5,729 m<sup>3</sup>/s by 14:00, resulting in severe flooding and widespread destruction. This event was simulated using the MIKE 21 FM hydrodynamic model over a 12-h period (02:00–14:00), showing an 8-m water level rise in low-lying areas, causing severe infrastructure damage. The integrating of MIKE FLOOD with MIKE OPERATION and AWS for real-time cloudburst prediction highlights the role of early warning systems in improving preparedness, reducing damage, and saving lives during extreme weather.</p>

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A review of cloudbursts events in the Himalaya region, and 2D hydrodynamic simulation using MIKE models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月16日

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  • Kuldeep Pareta,
  • Upasana Pareta

摘要

This study analyses cloudburst events in the Indian Himalayas from 1970 to 2024, revealing an increasing frequency, particularly in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. Uttarakhand is the most affected area, Himachal Pradesh experiences frequent events while Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh show rising trends. Hydrodynamic modelling employed MIKE Hydro River, MIKE 21 FM, and MIKE FLOOD to simulate the events, supported by historical rainfall and discharge data. The MIKE Hydro River NAM model calibrated (2015–2020) and validated (2021–2023), achieved R2 values of 0.98 and 0.87, and water balance errors of 0.89% and 0.83%, respectively, confirming its reliability for hydrological simulations. A 2D hydrodynamic model simulated the July 16–18, 2018, cloudburst in Uttarkashi, calibrated using Sentinel-1 C-band data with 91.3% inundation extent accuracy. The August 18, 2019, Uttarkashi cloudburst caused a sharp increase in Bhagirathi River discharge from 1,093 at 04:00 to a peak of 5,729 m3/s by 14:00, resulting in severe flooding and widespread destruction. This event was simulated using the MIKE 21 FM hydrodynamic model over a 12-h period (02:00–14:00), showing an 8-m water level rise in low-lying areas, causing severe infrastructure damage. The integrating of MIKE FLOOD with MIKE OPERATION and AWS for real-time cloudburst prediction highlights the role of early warning systems in improving preparedness, reducing damage, and saving lives during extreme weather.