Advanced predictive modeling of aftershock magnitudes: a comparative analysis and novel approach following the 2023 Türkiye earthquake

Following the Kahramanmaras earthquake on February 6th, 2023, which significantly impacted central Turkey, hundreds of aftershocks within the first two weeks have continued to trigger widespread panic, forcing residents to evacuate their homes. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the duration and magnitude of these aftershocks has heightened public anxiety. This report aims to provide an estimation of the magnitude of potential aftershocks and assess the likelihood of severe seismic events by analyzing statistical data from events recorded in the affected area during the 16 days following the main shock. Utilizing MATLAB, the time series of these aftershocks were examined. A statistical model was developed to correlate Aftershock Magnitude (AM) with the time interval between consecutive events and the time elapsed since the main shock. Findings indicate a consistent trend in AMs over time, enabling us to predict upper and lower magnitude bounds with 95% certainty. The analysis suggests that significant seismic activity is unlikely to continue in the near future, potentially alleviating immediate concerns among residents.