Expanding glacial lakes and assessing outburst susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes using logistic regression in the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, Tibet, China

Climate change is driving the rapid global expansion of glacial lakes, particularly in mountainous regions like the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Moraine-dammed lakes (MDLs), formed by glacial meltwater blocked by glacial moraine dams, significantly risk outburst floods with devastating consequences. Our study focuses on the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, using Landsat satellite imagery from 1990 to 2022 to analyze changes in glacial lake size and distribution. We observed a 17.24% rise in glacial lake numbers and a 54.7% increase in their total area over 32 years. We selected six easily obtainable assessment factors based on the extracted results and DEM information. We proposed a simple logistic regression model to assess MDL outburst susceptibility. The model effectively determined the outburst susceptibility of historical MDL events in southeastern Tibet beyond the Yigong Tsangpo Basin. Applied to the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, the model highlighted 11 high-risk lakes requiring immediate attention. This study provides valuable preliminary references for disaster prevention and mitigation of MDL outbursts in southeastern Tibet.