<p>Against the backdrop of synergizing global climate change mitigation efforts, China’s national “Dual Carbon” goals, and the advancement of ecological civilization, the development of a low-carbon economy has emerged as a critical indicator for assessing regional sustainable development capacity. Establishing a scientific, standardized and highly operational low-carbon economy evaluation system is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development and green transformation, and it is also an important measure to ensure the effective implementation of national strategic plans. This study selected 14 prefectures (counties, cities) in Xinjiang as the research objects, and constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system covering five dimensions: economic foundation, resource efficiency, technological innovation, industrial structure, and environmental quality. By comprehensively applying the entropy weight-TOPSIS model, the gravity model, and spatial analysis methods, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial correlation structure of Xinjiang’s low-carbon economic development level from 2000 to 2023 were measured and analyzed. The research results show that: (1) The overall level of low-carbon economic development in Xinjiang has shown a significant upward trend. The comprehensive index increased by approximately 400% from 2000 to 2023, but there are significant regional differences between the north and south of Xinjiang, presenting a gradient differentiation pattern of “higher in the north and lower in the south, stronger in the north and weaker in the south”;(2) Spatially, a high-value area centered on Urumqi and clustered along the “Urumqi - Kashi - Hotan” line has formed in a band-like pattern. The spatial clustering effect is significant, but the core city’s radiation and driving capacity for the peripheral areas is limited, presenting a “strong core - weak periphery” structure; (3) The spatial correlation network of the low-carbon economy has undergone an evolution process from “isolated points” to “axis-driven” and then to “network collaboration”. The overall connection has continuously strengthened, but the network connection strength between the north and south regions as well as between urban and rural areas remains unbalanced; (4) The core areas are mainly concentrated in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in the northern Xinjiang region. Most areas in the southern Xinjiang have remained in the peripheral zone, and the regional low-carbon development cooperation mechanism has not yet been fully established. Research shows that although Xinjiang has made positive progress in low-carbon economic development, it still faces challenges such as regional imbalance, incomplete network structure, and core-periphery differentiation. In the future, through implementing differentiated regional policies, strengthening cross-regional infrastructure connectivity, promoting the diffusion of low-carbon technologies and industrial collaboration, etc., a new pattern of balanced and networked low-carbon coordinated development across the entire region should be promoted. This will help achieve the green transformation of Xinjiang and the realization of the national “carbon neutrality” strategic goals. This research can provide reference for the selection of low-carbon development paths and the formulation of spatial policies in similar regions.</p>