<p>Financial development is widely regarded as a key driver of industrial chain advancement. However, traditional finance plays a limited role in ensuring industrial chain security. Whether finance can effectively align with the carrying capacity of the industrial chain during its spatial and temporal evolution remains a critical issue for enhancing China’s economic resilience. Using provincial panel data, this study examines the impact of financial agglomeration on industrial chain resilience and its evolution under the digital economy. The empirical results reveal four key findings. First, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial agglomeration and industrial chain resilience, which remains robust across multiple tests. Second, spatial heterogeneity analysis shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship is significant in the eastern region and in “net spillover” provinces, while the central region and “broker” provinces—primarily receivers in the network—display only the positive side of the curve. Third, financial agglomeration is also found to have an inverted U-shaped effect on industrial structure upgrading, which in turn positively enhances industrial chain resilience, thereby serving as a mediating mechanism. Fourth, the rise of the digital economy amplifies the effect of financial agglomeration on industrial chain resilience but does not alter the fundamental inverted U-shaped relationship. Overall, this paper contributes theoretical and empirical evidence on how financial agglomeration influences industrial chain resilience through both direct and indirect pathways. The findings highlight the need to balance the benefits of agglomeration with its potential congestion effects, thereby promoting the sustainable interaction between financial development and industrial chain carrying capacity.</p>

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Financial Agglomeration: Catalyst or Bottleneck for Industrial Chain Resilience?—Evidence from China

  • Zhiqiang Liu,
  • Kehan Hou

摘要

Financial development is widely regarded as a key driver of industrial chain advancement. However, traditional finance plays a limited role in ensuring industrial chain security. Whether finance can effectively align with the carrying capacity of the industrial chain during its spatial and temporal evolution remains a critical issue for enhancing China’s economic resilience. Using provincial panel data, this study examines the impact of financial agglomeration on industrial chain resilience and its evolution under the digital economy. The empirical results reveal four key findings. First, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial agglomeration and industrial chain resilience, which remains robust across multiple tests. Second, spatial heterogeneity analysis shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship is significant in the eastern region and in “net spillover” provinces, while the central region and “broker” provinces—primarily receivers in the network—display only the positive side of the curve. Third, financial agglomeration is also found to have an inverted U-shaped effect on industrial structure upgrading, which in turn positively enhances industrial chain resilience, thereby serving as a mediating mechanism. Fourth, the rise of the digital economy amplifies the effect of financial agglomeration on industrial chain resilience but does not alter the fundamental inverted U-shaped relationship. Overall, this paper contributes theoretical and empirical evidence on how financial agglomeration influences industrial chain resilience through both direct and indirect pathways. The findings highlight the need to balance the benefits of agglomeration with its potential congestion effects, thereby promoting the sustainable interaction between financial development and industrial chain carrying capacity.