Trends in global, regional and national burden of brain and CNS cancers, 1990–2021 and predictions to 2036: analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021
摘要
Our study aims to analyze the burden of brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers worldwide between 1990 and 2021, with the intention of informing the establishment of appropriate control and prevention measures and health resource allocations.
MethodsData from the GBD 2021 were examined to determine the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of global brain and CNS cancers from 1990 to 2021, across age, sex, and the sociodemographic index (SDI).
ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), incidence rate (ASIR), and YLDs increased while the age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) and YLLs decreased. Both genders increased in prevalence, incidence, YLDs, and decreased in DALYs and YLLs from 1990 to 2021. The ASMR remained relatively stable with no statistically significant trend observed for either males or females. Regionally, the largest increase of prevalence and incidence was in High-income Asia Pacific. Kingdom of Norway has the highest ASIR and ASPR in 2021. In 2019, a notable inflection point emerged, marking a shift of incidence and prevalence from upward to downward, and the global ASIR was expected to continue declining by 2036.
ConclusionAlthough the burden of brain and CNS cancers increased over the past 30 years, the global ASIR had decreased from 2019 and was expected to continue declining by 2036, which may be related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Reducing the burden should focused on devise differentiated screening methods, treatment strategies, and preventive measures across different nations and SDI regions. In low SDI regions where mortality is rising, efforts must focus on strengthening health systems for basic diagnostics and essential treatments. In high SDI regions, priorities may include etiological research into high incidence rates and managing the burdens of long-term survivorship.