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<p>Chestnut (Castanea mollissima) provides nutritionally dense nuts and is extensively cultivated across China. However, its productivity and quality are severely compromised by the chestnut weevil <i>Niphades castanea</i>, creating an urgent practical necessity for scientific assessment of this pest’s dispersal risks. This study employed parameter-optimized MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze potential suitable habitats, revealing near-complete niche overlap with chestnut hosts.&#xa0;Results identified eight determinants governing the pest’s distribution, with elevation, bio1 (annual mean temperature), bio2 (mean diurnal range), bio4 (temperature seasonality), and bio18 (precipitation of warmest quarter) exhibiting predominant influence. Under different climate scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585), projections indicate significant expansion of highly and moderately suitable habitats, contrasting with contraction trends in non-suitable and low-suitability areas. Crucially, the geographic centroid of all suitable habitats consistently resides within the Yangtze River Basin, reflecting core distributional stability across the Yangtze, Yellow, and Huai River basins. These findings provide critical references for evidence-based formulation of <i>N. castanea</i> control strategies and establish a theoretical foundation for developing precision monitoring and early-warning systems targeting forestry pests.</p>

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The persistent threat of Niphades castanea to China’s chestnut across three major river basins

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月7日

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  • Bin Mao,
  • Yue Fu,
  • Ya-Bo Liu,
  • Hui-Ling Yang,
  • Yun-Li Xiao

摘要

Chestnut (Castanea mollissima) provides nutritionally dense nuts and is extensively cultivated across China. However, its productivity and quality are severely compromised by the chestnut weevil Niphades castanea, creating an urgent practical necessity for scientific assessment of this pest’s dispersal risks. This study employed parameter-optimized MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze potential suitable habitats, revealing near-complete niche overlap with chestnut hosts. Results identified eight determinants governing the pest’s distribution, with elevation, bio1 (annual mean temperature), bio2 (mean diurnal range), bio4 (temperature seasonality), and bio18 (precipitation of warmest quarter) exhibiting predominant influence. Under different climate scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585), projections indicate significant expansion of highly and moderately suitable habitats, contrasting with contraction trends in non-suitable and low-suitability areas. Crucially, the geographic centroid of all suitable habitats consistently resides within the Yangtze River Basin, reflecting core distributional stability across the Yangtze, Yellow, and Huai River basins. These findings provide critical references for evidence-based formulation of N. castanea control strategies and establish a theoretical foundation for developing precision monitoring and early-warning systems targeting forestry pests.