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<p>Türkiye’s semi-arid climate and intense anthropogenic pressures make monitoring long-term water storage changes critical. In this study, terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) were derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data using four spherical harmonic solutions (COST-G, JPL, CSR, and GFZ) and one mascon solution (GSFC-M) for the period 2002–2024. This study provides the first comprehensive Türkiye-scale assessment of TWSA derived from multiple GRACE spherical harmonic and mascon solutions. Theil–Sen, Mann–Kendall, and seasonal-trend decomposition using loess analyses were employed, and the findings showed significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) negative trends for all solutions. The spherical harmonic solutions showed mean trends ranging from − 6.2 to − 6.5&#xa0;km<sup>3</sup>/year while the mascon solution showed a weaker trend of − 4.6&#xa0;km<sup>3</sup>/year. The trend maps showed significant losses from central Anatolia toward eastern Türkiye but limited gains northward. The inter-solution uncertainty was highest in the eastern Black Sea and southeastern regions, with 3–5&#xa0;mm/year, and lowest in the Marmara and Aegean regions. The findings indicate that changes in TWSA in Türkiye are spatially heterogeneous and that the combined use of multiple GRACE products increases the reliability of the trends.</p>

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Assessment of Multiple GRACE Solutions for Estimation of Terrestrial Water Storage Trends over Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月6日

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  • Hilal Şimşek,
  • Emel Zeray Öztürk

摘要

Türkiye’s semi-arid climate and intense anthropogenic pressures make monitoring long-term water storage changes critical. In this study, terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) were derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data using four spherical harmonic solutions (COST-G, JPL, CSR, and GFZ) and one mascon solution (GSFC-M) for the period 2002–2024. This study provides the first comprehensive Türkiye-scale assessment of TWSA derived from multiple GRACE spherical harmonic and mascon solutions. Theil–Sen, Mann–Kendall, and seasonal-trend decomposition using loess analyses were employed, and the findings showed significant (p < 0.01) negative trends for all solutions. The spherical harmonic solutions showed mean trends ranging from − 6.2 to − 6.5 km3/year while the mascon solution showed a weaker trend of − 4.6 km3/year. The trend maps showed significant losses from central Anatolia toward eastern Türkiye but limited gains northward. The inter-solution uncertainty was highest in the eastern Black Sea and southeastern regions, with 3–5 mm/year, and lowest in the Marmara and Aegean regions. The findings indicate that changes in TWSA in Türkiye are spatially heterogeneous and that the combined use of multiple GRACE products increases the reliability of the trends.