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<p>Due to the environmental degradation caused by population growth, land-use changes, and climate change, the assessment of watershed health has taken on greater importance in recent decades. Though various methods have been proposed for watershed zoning and prioritization, their performance has not been directly compared. Therefore, this study employed the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework to assess watershed health under current and projected land-use and climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5) and compares its performance with results derived from the Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) and <i>VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje</i> (VIKOR) models. Landsat satellite imagery from 2003, 2013, and 2023 was used to generate historical land-use maps, while future scenarios for 2033 and 2043 were forecast using the Land Change Modeler. Climatic, environmental, and land-use variables were integrated into the PSR framework to quantify watershed health under current and projected conditions. The pressure, state, response, and health indices for the baseline period were 0.58, 0.55, 0.40, and 0.49, respectively, while those under climate change conditions in 2033 and 2043 were 0.57, 0.67, 0.40, and 0.52, respectively. Under the influence of land-use changes, the pressure, state, response, and health indices were 0.59, 0.56, 0.40, and 0.49, respectively, in 2033 and 0.59, 0.57, 0.59, and 0.57, respectively, in 2043. Finally, the combined effect of climate change and land-use produced pressure, state, response, and health indices of 0.58, 0.67, 0.40, and 0.52, respectively, in 2033 and 0.58, 0.68, 0.59, and 0.61, respectively, in 2043. Examining changes in health compared to the baseline period (2023) under the influence of climate and land-use changes revealed that the health index would increase by 5.66 and 19.53% in 2033 and 2043, respectively. These results from the PSR model were not in agreement with those obtained from the COPRAS and VIKOR models, with the two comparison models unable to replicate the health index results. Collectively, these findings indicate that, although positive land-use changes and higher rainfall in the future may improve watershed health, sustainable watershed management requires integrated strategies that also address land degradation and human development pressures. Prioritizing forest conservation, limiting the conversion of natural lands to agriculture and residential areas, and adopting soil and water conservation practices are recommended to enhance long-term watershed resilience.</p>

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Assessing Watershed Health Based on Land-Use Changes and Climate Change Using PSR and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Reza Chamani,
  • Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari,
  • Changhyun Jun,
  • Sayed M. Bateni,
  • Mehdi Vafakhah,
  • Fatemeh Akbari Emamzadeh,
  • Halime Joloro

摘要

Due to the environmental degradation caused by population growth, land-use changes, and climate change, the assessment of watershed health has taken on greater importance in recent decades. Though various methods have been proposed for watershed zoning and prioritization, their performance has not been directly compared. Therefore, this study employed the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework to assess watershed health under current and projected land-use and climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5) and compares its performance with results derived from the Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) and VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) models. Landsat satellite imagery from 2003, 2013, and 2023 was used to generate historical land-use maps, while future scenarios for 2033 and 2043 were forecast using the Land Change Modeler. Climatic, environmental, and land-use variables were integrated into the PSR framework to quantify watershed health under current and projected conditions. The pressure, state, response, and health indices for the baseline period were 0.58, 0.55, 0.40, and 0.49, respectively, while those under climate change conditions in 2033 and 2043 were 0.57, 0.67, 0.40, and 0.52, respectively. Under the influence of land-use changes, the pressure, state, response, and health indices were 0.59, 0.56, 0.40, and 0.49, respectively, in 2033 and 0.59, 0.57, 0.59, and 0.57, respectively, in 2043. Finally, the combined effect of climate change and land-use produced pressure, state, response, and health indices of 0.58, 0.67, 0.40, and 0.52, respectively, in 2033 and 0.58, 0.68, 0.59, and 0.61, respectively, in 2043. Examining changes in health compared to the baseline period (2023) under the influence of climate and land-use changes revealed that the health index would increase by 5.66 and 19.53% in 2033 and 2043, respectively. These results from the PSR model were not in agreement with those obtained from the COPRAS and VIKOR models, with the two comparison models unable to replicate the health index results. Collectively, these findings indicate that, although positive land-use changes and higher rainfall in the future may improve watershed health, sustainable watershed management requires integrated strategies that also address land degradation and human development pressures. Prioritizing forest conservation, limiting the conversion of natural lands to agriculture and residential areas, and adopting soil and water conservation practices are recommended to enhance long-term watershed resilience.