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<p>Land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and land surface temperature (LST) are crucial environmental indicators influenced by climate change. Although their inter-relationships are acknowledged, they remain insufficiently explored. This study investigated the linkages between LULC and LST and their impact on Gilgel Gibe water resources by employing remote sensing data and the cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model. Historical LULC changes from 1993 to 2023 were analyzed, and future scenarios for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 were predicted. The results revealed significant LULC changes over the study period, with cultivated land and built-up areas increasing by 22.35% and 3.37%, respectively, from 1993 to 2023. Projections for 2060 indicate further increases (88.72% for cultivated land and 4.27% for built-up areas), alongside decreases in grassland (− 7.9%) and forest cover (− 3.12%). The CA–MC model demonstrated high reliability (Kappa &gt; 0.91, overall accuracy &gt; 92.5%) in predicting future trends. The findings highlight the need for proactive strategies to mitigate LULC impacts on water resources and LST. The CA–MC model is a valuable tool for monitoring and predicting LULC changes, supporting informed policymaking, efficient resource management, and sustainable development initiatives in the Gilgel Gibe area.</p>

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Assessing and Predicting Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes, and Land Surface Temperature Impacts on Gilgel Gibe Water Resources, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月22日

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  • Amanuel Kumsa Bojer,
  • Muluneh Wolde Tsadik,
  • Saralees Nadarajah,
  • Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi

摘要

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and land surface temperature (LST) are crucial environmental indicators influenced by climate change. Although their inter-relationships are acknowledged, they remain insufficiently explored. This study investigated the linkages between LULC and LST and their impact on Gilgel Gibe water resources by employing remote sensing data and the cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model. Historical LULC changes from 1993 to 2023 were analyzed, and future scenarios for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 were predicted. The results revealed significant LULC changes over the study period, with cultivated land and built-up areas increasing by 22.35% and 3.37%, respectively, from 1993 to 2023. Projections for 2060 indicate further increases (88.72% for cultivated land and 4.27% for built-up areas), alongside decreases in grassland (− 7.9%) and forest cover (− 3.12%). The CA–MC model demonstrated high reliability (Kappa > 0.91, overall accuracy > 92.5%) in predicting future trends. The findings highlight the need for proactive strategies to mitigate LULC impacts on water resources and LST. The CA–MC model is a valuable tool for monitoring and predicting LULC changes, supporting informed policymaking, efficient resource management, and sustainable development initiatives in the Gilgel Gibe area.